Forecasting Method for Grouped Time Series with the Use of k-Means Algorithm

The paper is focused on the forecasting method for time series groups with the use of algorithms for cluster analysis. K-means algorithm is suggested to be a basic one for clustering. The coordinates of the centers of clusters have been put in cor- respondence with summarizing time series data - the centroids of the clusters. A description of time series, the centroids of the clusters, is implemented with the use of forecasting models. They are based on strict binary trees and a modified clonal selection algorithm. With the help of such forecasting models, the possibil- ity of forming analytic dependences is shown. It is suggested to use a common forecasting model, which is constructed for time series - the centroid of the cluster, in

[1]  Alexander N. Gorban,et al.  Principal Graphs and Manifolds , 2008, ArXiv.

[2]  J. Bezdek,et al.  FCM: The fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm , 1984 .

[3]  G. McLachlan,et al.  The EM algorithm and extensions , 1996 .

[4]  Jun Zhang,et al.  Clustering-Based Adaptive Crossover and Mutation Probabilities for Genetic Algorithms , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation.

[5]  James C. Bezdek,et al.  A Convergence Theorem for the Fuzzy ISODATA Clustering Algorithms , 1980, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[6]  Liliya A. Demidova Time series forecasting models on the base of modified clonal selection algorithm , 2014, 2014 International Conference on Computer Technologies in Physical and Engineering Applications (ICCTPEA).

[7]  Andrei Zinovyev,et al.  Principal Graphs and Manifolds , 2010 .

[8]  Fernando José Von Zuben,et al.  Learning and optimization using the clonal selection principle , 2002, IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput..

[9]  Evgeny Nikulchev Simulation of robust chaotic signal with given properties , 2014 .

[10]  Lalit M. Patnaik,et al.  Adaptive probabilities of crossover and mutation in genetic algorithms , 1994, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern..

[11]  Jonathan Timmis,et al.  Artificial Immune Recognition System (AIRS): An Immune-Inspired Supervised Learning Algorithm , 2004, Genetic Programming and Evolvable Machines.

[12]  Zhou Ji,et al.  Artificial immune system (AIS) research in the last five years , 2003, The 2003 Congress on Evolutionary Computation, 2003. CEC '03..

[13]  J. MacQueen Some methods for classification and analysis of multivariate observations , 1967 .