How will the tundra-taiga interface respond to climate change?

The intuitive and logical answer to the question of how the tundra-taiga interface will react to global warming is that it should move north and this is mirrored by many models of potential treeline migration. Northward movement may be the eventual outcome if climatic warming persists over centuries or millennia. However, closer examination of the tundra-taiga interface across its circumpolar extent reveals a more complex situation. The regional climatic history of the tundra-taiga interface is highly varied, and consequently it is to be expected that the forest tundra boundary zone will respond differently to climate change depending on local variations in climate, evolutionary history, soil development, and hydrology. Investigations reveal considerable stability at present in the position of the treeline and while there may be a long-term advance northwards there are oceanic regions where climatic warming may result in a retreat southwards due to increased bog development. Reinforcing this trend is an increasing human impact, particularly in the forest tundra of Russia, which forces the limit of the forested areas southwards. Local variations will therefore require continued observation and research, as they will be of considerable importance economically as well as for ecology and conservation.

[1]  D. Sauchyn,et al.  The ostracode record from Harris Lake, southwestern Saskatchewan: 9200 years of local environmental change , 1999 .

[2]  C. Kremenetski,et al.  HOLOCENE HISTORY OF THE NORTHERN RANGE LIMITS OF SOME TREES AND SHRUBS IN RUSSIA , 1998 .

[3]  R. Crawford,et al.  Studies in Plant Survival. , 1989 .

[4]  S. Kellomäki,et al.  Simulation of tree species composition and organic matter accumulation in Finnish boreal forests under changing climatic conditions , 1992, Vegetatio.

[5]  H. Shugart,et al.  The transient response of terrestrial carbon storage to a perturbed climate , 1993, Nature.

[6]  I. Hustich.  The scotch pine in northernmost Finland and its dependence on the climate in the last decades , 1948 .

[7]  M. Kanninen,et al.  The maturation of Pinus sylvestris seeds in relation to temperature climate in Northern Finland , 1986 .

[8]  Peter Kareiva,et al.  Plant defense, herbivory, and climate change. , 1993 .

[9]  Philip E. Hulme,et al.  HERBIVORY, PLANT REGENERATION, AND SPECIES COEXISTENCE , 1996 .

[10]  L. Kullman.  Dynamics of altitudinal tree-limits in Sweden: a review , 1990 .

[11]  L. Klinger.  Coupling of Soils and Vegetation in Peatland Succession , 1996 .

[12]  Risto Sarvas,et al.  Investigations on the annual cycle of development of forest trees. II. Autumn dormancy and winter dormancy , 1974 .

[13]  Wolfgang Cramer,et al.  The effects of fragmentation and disturbance of rainforest on ground‐dwelling small mammals on the Robertson Plateau, New South Wales, Australia , 1996, Journal of Biogeography.

[14]  O. Junttila,et al.  Influence of the female flowering environment on autumn frost-hardiness of Picea abies progenies , 1996, Theoretical and Applied Genetics.

[15]  T. Virtanen,et al.  Modelling topoclimatic patterns of egg mortality of Epirrita autumnata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) with a Geographical Information System: predictions for current climate and warmer climate scenarios , 1998 .

[16]  A. McGuire,et al.  Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production , 1993, Nature.

[17]  M. Sturm,et al.  Climate change: Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic , 2001, Nature.

[18]  W. Cramer.  Modeling the Possible Impact of Climate Change on Broad-Scale Vegetation Structure: Examples from Northern Europe , 1997 .

[19]  S. Payette,et al.  LANDSCAPE CHANGE FOLLOWING DEFORESTATION AT THE ARCTIC TREE LINE IN QUEBEC, CANADA , 1997 .

[20]  B. Huntley,et al.  IMPACTS OF HABITAT FRAGMENTATION AND PATCH SIZE UPON MIGRATION RATES , 2000 .

[21]  O. Tenow.  Hazards to a mountain birch forest-Abisko in perspective. , 1996 .

[22]  G. Meehl,et al.  The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) , 2000 .

[23]  John E. Walsh,et al.  Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) , 2001 .

[24]  C. Tucker,et al.  A large carbon sink in the woody biomass of Northern forests , 2001, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[25]  F. S. Chapin,et al.  The Mineral Nutrition of Wild Plants , 1980 .

[26]  Herman H. Shugart,et al.  Environmental Factors and Ecological Processes in Boreal Forests , 1989 .

[27]  D. Mauquoy,et al.  A replicated 3000 yr proxy‐climate record from Coom Rigg Moss and Felecia Moss, the Border Mires, northern England , 1999 .

[28]  W. Cramer,et al.  A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate , 1992 .

[29]  J. Smol,et al.  Rapid response of treeline vegetation and lakes to past climate warming , 1993, Nature.

[30]  A. Hofgaard,et al.  Response of old‐growth montane Picea abies (L.) Karst. forest to climatic variability in northern Sweden , 1991 .

[31]  F. Stuart Chapin,et al.  Plant Phenols and Nutrients in Relation to Variations in Climate and Rodent Grazing , 1986, The American Naturalist.

[32]  R. Crawford,et al.  Paludification and forest retreat in northern oceanic environments. , 2003, Annals of botany.

[33]  W. Cramer,et al.  Arctic Ecosystems and Environmental Change , 1997 .

[34]  V. Conrad.  Usual formulas of continentality and their limits of validity , 1946 .

[35]  H. Hänninen,et al.  Computations on frost damage to Scots pine under climatic warming in boreal conditions , 1995 .

[36]  W. Cramer,et al.  The IIASA database for mean monthly values of temperature , 1991 .

[37]  A. Hofgaard.  Inter-relationships between treeline position, species diversity, land use and climate change in the Central Scandes Mountains of Norway , 1997 .

[38]  H. Mooney,et al.  Comparative Physiological Ecology of Arctic and Alpine Populations of Oxyria digyna , 1961 .

[39]  Hendrik Poorter.  Interspecific variation in the growth response of plants to an elevated ambient CO2 concentration , 2004, Vegetatio.

[40]  Effects of climatic warming on northern trees: Testing the frost damage hypothesis with meteorological data from provenance transfer experiments , 1996 .

[41]  M. Cannell,et al.  Date of budburst of fifteen tree species in Britain following climatic warming , 1989 .

[42]  F. H. Schweingruber,et al.  Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes , 1998, Nature.