Closure violation in DNA-based mark-recapture estimation of grizzly bear populations

We use methods in the program MARK to explore the effects of closure violation when DNA-based mark–recapture methods are used to estimate grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) populations. Our approach involves the use of Pradel models in MARK to explore the relationship between recruitment, apparent survival rates, recapture rates, and distance between mean bear-capture locations and the edge of the sampling grid. If the population is demographically closed, it can be assumed that apparent survival estimates the fidelity of bears to the grid area and recruitment estimates rates of addition of bears to the grid area. A core bear population is defined from the Pradel analysis and is used to approximate the grid-based population size. The Huggins closed-population model in MARK is used to provide robust superpopulation estimates by explicitly modeling the relationship between capture probability and distance of bear-capture location from the grid edge. Data from a grizzly bear DNA-based mark–recapture inventory condu...

[1]  B. Mclellan.  Dynamics of a grizzly bear population during a period of industrial resource extraction. I. Density and age–sex composition , 1989 .

[2]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Evaluation of Two Density Estimators of Small Mammal Population Size , 1985 .

[3]  G. Seber,et al.  The Estimation of Animal Abundance , 1975 .

[4]  G. Mowat,et al.  Estimating population size of grizzly bears using hair capture, DNA profiling, and mark-recapture analysis , 2000 .

[5]  R. Huggins.  Some practical aspects of a conditional likelihood approach to capture experiments , 1991 .

[6]  William L. Kendall,et al.  ROBUSTNESS OF CLOSED CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHODS TO VIOLATIONS OF THE CLOSURE ASSUMPTION , 1999 .

[7]  Kenneth P. Burnham,et al.  Estimator selection for closed-population capture-recapture , 1998 .

[8]  L. Waits,et al.  Noninvasive genetic sampling: look before you leap. , 1999, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[9]  Richard D. Mace,et al.  ESTIMATING GRIZZLY BEAR POPULATION SIZE USING CAMERA SIGHTINGS , 1994 .

[10]  V. Banci,et al.  Evaluation of the Population Status of Grizzly Bears in Canada , 1994 .

[11]  Shirley Pledger,et al.  CORRECTION OF BIAS DUE TO HETEROGENEOUS CAPTURE PROBABILITY IN CAPTURE-RECAPTURE STUDIES OF OPEN POPULATIONS , 1998 .

[12]  James E. Hines,et al.  Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates , 2000 .

[13]  K. Burnham,et al.  Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animals , 1999 .

[14]  J. Boulanger,et al.  Robustness of capture-recapture estimators to sample biases in a cyclic snowshoe hare population , 1996 .

[15]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Model selection and multimodel inference : a practical information-theoretic approach , 2003 .

[16]  I. Stirling,et al.  Microsatellite analysis of population structure in Canadian polar bears , 1995, Molecular ecology.

[17]  D. McCullough,et al.  Wildlife 2001: Populations , 1996 .

[18]  David Paetkau,et al.  Genetic tagging of free-ranging black and brown bears , 1999 .

[19]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Distance Sampling: Estimating Abundance of Biological Populations , 1995 .

[20]  Richard D. Mace,et al.  Spatial and temporal interaction of male and female grizzly bears in northwestern Montana , 1997 .

[21]  J. Norris,et al.  NONPARAMETRIC MLE UNDER TWO CLOSED CAPTURE-RECAPTURE MODELS WITH HETEROGENEITY , 1996 .

[22]  Michael K. Schwartz,et al.  ESTIMATING ANIMAL ABUNDANCE USING NONINVASIVE DNA SAMPLING: PROMISE AND PITFALLS , 2000 .

[23]  Richard D. Mace,et al.  Rates and Causes of Grizzly Bear Mortality in the Interior Mountains of British Columbia, Alberta, Montana, Washington, and Idaho , 1999 .

[24]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Model selection and inference : a practical information-theoretic approach , 2000 .

[25]  A Chao,et al.  Estimating population size for capture-recapture data when capture probabilities vary by time and individual animal. , 1992, Biometrics.

[26]  R. Kenward,et al.  Goshawk winter ecology in Swedish Pheasant habitats , 1981 .

[27]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Statistical inference from capture data on closed animal populations , 1980 .

[28]  L. Eberhardt.  Using radio-telemetry for mark-recapture studies with edge effects , 1990 .

[29]  J. Nichols,et al.  Statistical inference for capture-recapture experiments , 1992 .

[30]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Capture-Recapture and Removal Methods for Sampling Closed Populations , 1983 .

[31]  C. Strobeck,et al.  Microsatellite analysis of genetic variation in black bear populations , 1994, Molecular ecology.

[32]  Gary C. White,et al.  Brown and black bear density estimation in Alaska using radiotelemetry and replicated mark-resight techniques , 1997 .

[33]  Kenneth P. Burnham,et al.  ADVANCED FEATURES OF PROGRAM MARK , 2002 .