Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains: Further Analysis of Their Status in Technology Adoption Life-Cycle

The ongoing diffusion of new technologies with emphasis on the hybrid and diesel powertrains in light duty vehicles within the technology adoption life cycle proposed by E.M. Rogers and G.A. Moore is examined. The paper adds to a 2004 analysis by Santini and Vyas, further examining results of a mid-2004 stated preference study of 1036 households. This paper adheres to the Rogers/Moore notion of a pathway from innovators to early adopters to early majority, critically examining Moore’s argument that a hesitation in diffusion will occur between early adopters and early majority consumer classes. Survey responses are ultimately divided into the three groups, and implications are discussed. The automotive market is clearly shown to be very heterogeneous, even beyond the categories used by Rogers. The three attributes examined in the paper are consumer willingness to pay for fuel economy, acceleration, and ability to tow. The five vehicle types examined are small car, large car, minivan, SUV, and pickup truck. Hybrid powertrain innovators are shown to prefer small, fuel efficient cars to a dramatically greater degree than others. The early adopters of diesel powertrain technology are shown to prefer pickup trucks considerably more capable of towing. Early adopters among the three truck types are shown to have a higher preference for acceleration than either innovators or the majority.