일반철도의 수송수요 변화 추정모형 개발

As short term demand forecasting of railway passenger service is based on transportation data of the past, it has limits to explain all the various changes on railway services including opening of new lines and changes on train operation frequencies. Therefore, this study establishes a model which is able to consider socioeconomic indicators and the impacts of other travel modes. And it analyses the trip distribution characteristics by deriving usage probability depending on a line distance and threshold of the moving distance of the railway lines. Demand estimation model for the conventional passenger service is built by applying distance variables additionally obtained from passage characteristics analysis. Furthermore, improvement in model’s suitability is obtained by building up separated model by lines rather than building up an integrated railway model as the leverage of the independent variables were different by lines in the statistics. Therefore, this study finalizes the forecasting model through selecting significant variables for the Saemaeul and Mugunghwa service in the 5 trunk lines(Gyeongbu line, Honam line, Jeolla line, Janghang line, Jungang line), and the sensitivity analysis shows that fare has greater impact on rail travel demand than travel time changes in the study.