Modeling the Combined Effect of Powertrain Options and Autonomous Technology on Vehicle Adoption and Utilization by Line-haul Fleets

In this paper we present a model formulation to predict the powertrain and autonomy technology adoption in a line-haul freight transportation network. The vehicle adoption and utilization behaviors of fleets operating in the network are represented as a mixed integer linear program. Powertrain technologies evaluated include diesel engines, compressed and liquefied natural gas engines, diesel-electric hybrid, battery electric, and hydrogen fuel cell. Levels of autonomy introduced to the market include Level 2, Level 4, and Level 5 as defined by SAE standards. Simulated case scenarios are presented to demonstrate the utility of the model, with an emphasis on the types of insights that can be gained by analyzing both vehicle adoption and utilization. This in turn makes the proposed model a more effective tool for policy-making and other strategic decision-making.

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