NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Improvement of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size Estimation Algorithms

Previous work, in which Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data from the Atlantic Ocean and east Pacific Ocean basins during 1999–2001 were used to provide objective estimates of 1-min maximum sustained surface winds, minimum sea level pressure, and the radii of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt (1 kt 0.5144 ms 1 ) winds in the northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest quadrants of tropical cyclones, is updated to reflect larger datasets, improved statistical analysis techniques, and improved estimation through dependent variable transforms. A multiple regression approach, which utilizes best-subset predictor selection and cross validation, is employed to develop the estimation models, where the dependent data (i.e., maximum sustained winds, minimum pressure, wind radii) are from the extended best track and the independent data consist of AMSU-derived parameters that give information about retrieved pressure, winds, temperature, moisture, and satellite resolution. The developmental regression models result in mean absolute errors (MAE) of 10.8 kt and 7.8 hPa for estimating maximum winds and minimum pressure, respectively. The MAE for the 34-, 50-, and 64-kt azimuthally averaged wind radii are 16.9, 13.3, and 6.8 n mi (1 n mi 1852 m), respectively.

[1]  S. J. C. E. Deppermann,et al.  Notes on the Origin and Structure of Philippine Typhoons , 1947 .

[2]  Francis P. Ho,et al.  Meteorological criteria for standard project hurricane and probable maximum hurricane windfields, gulf and east coasts of the United States , 1979 .

[3]  Roy W. Spencer,et al.  Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds , 2001 .

[4]  John A. Knaff,et al.  On the Influences of Vertical Wind Shear on Symmetric Tropical Cyclone Structure Derived from AMSU , 2004 .

[5]  Richard L. Bankert,et al.  An Automated Method to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using SSM/I Imagery , 2002 .

[6]  Stanley Q. Kidder,et al.  Estimating tropical cyclone central pressure and outer winds from satellite microwave data , 1978 .

[7]  Stanley Q. Kidder,et al.  Tropical cyclone outer surface winds derived from satellite microwave sounder data , 1980 .

[8]  W. M. Gray,et al.  Typhoon Structure as Revealed by Aircraft Reconnaissance. Part II: Structural Variability , 1988 .

[9]  L. Breiman,et al.  Submodel selection and evaluation in regression. The X-random case , 1992 .

[10]  A. Atkinson Subset Selection in Regression , 1992 .

[11]  Stanley Q. Kidder,et al.  Satellite Meteorology: An Introduction , 1995 .

[12]  W. Linwood Jones,et al.  Erratum: ``NSCAT high-resolution surface wind measurements in Typhoon Violet'' , 1999 .

[13]  S. Barnes,et al.  A Technique for Maximizing Details in Numerical Weather Map Analysis , 1964 .

[14]  Mitchell D. Goldberg,et al.  An Example of Temperature Structure Differences in Two Cyclone Systems Derived from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit , 2000 .

[15]  Christopher S. Velden,et al.  Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Digital Geostationary Satellite Infrared Imagery , 1998 .

[16]  Ann J. Schrader,et al.  The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (Version 3.2) , 2000 .

[17]  Mitchell D. Goldberg,et al.  The Limb Adjustment of AMSU-A Observations: Methodology and Validation , 2001 .

[18]  S. Kidder Determination of tropical cyclone surface pressure and winds from satellite microwave data , 1979 .

[19]  V. F. Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis and Forecasting from Satellite Imagery , 1975 .

[20]  Madhuri S. Mulekar,et al.  A 15-Year Climatology of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Size Parameters , 2004 .

[21]  James F. W. Purdom,et al.  Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). , 2000 .

[22]  John A. Knaff,et al.  Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit: Application to Surface Wind Analysis , 2006 .

[23]  Christopher S. Velden,et al.  Satellite-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using the NOAA-KLM Series Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) , 2003 .

[24]  John A. Knaff,et al.  Evaluation of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Tropical-Cyclone Intensity and Size Estimation Algorithms , 2004 .