A HIERARCHICAL HIDDEN MARKOV DETERIORATION MODEL FOR PAVEMENT STRUCTURE

舗装の劣化過程は路面の劣化過程と舗装全体の耐荷力の低下過程で構成される複合的過程である．耐荷力の低下は路面の劣化速度に影響を及ぼす．路面性状調査により路面の健全度を観測できる．一方，耐荷力の低下はFWD調査等により部分的に観測可能である．本研究では，このような特性を有する路面の劣化過程を，舗装耐荷力の状態に依存する混合マルコフ過程として記述する．その上で，路面の劣化過程と舗装耐荷力の低下過程により表現できる複合的な劣化過程を階層的隠れマルコフ劣化モデルとして表現する．さらに，具体的にNEXCOが運営する高速道路を対象とした適用事例を通じて，階層的隠れマルコフ劣化モデルを実際に推計するとともに，実務への適用可能性と有効性について実証的に検証する．

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