Analysis of the temporal properties in car accident time series

In this paper we study the time-clustering behavior of sequences of car accidents, using data from a freely available database in the internet. The Allan Factor analysis, which is a well-suited method to investigate time-dynamical behaviors in point processes, has revealed that the car accident sequences are characterized by a general time-scaling behavior, with the presence of cyclic components. These results indicate that the time dynamics of the events are not Poissonian but long range correlated with periodicities ranging from 12 h to 1 year.

[1]  D. W. Allan,et al.  A statistical model of flicker noise , 1966 .

[2]  T. Nagatani.  The physics of traffic jams , 2002 .

[3]  Rosa Lasaponara,et al.  Time-scaling properties in forest-fire sequences observed in Gargano area (southern Italy) , 2005 .

[4]  A. Zwi,et al.  Road traffic injuries in developing countries: a comprehensive review of epidemiological studies , 1997, Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH.

[5]  Nino Boccara,et al.  Car accidents and number of stopped cars due to road blockage on a one-lane highway , 1997, adap-org/9704001.

[6]  Peter Erskine Wells.  Deaths and injuries from car accidents: an intractable problem? , 2007 .

[7]  Athanasios Papoulis,et al.  Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic Processes , 1965 .

[8]  Yue-min Zhao,et al.  Boundary effects on car accidents in a cellular automaton model , 2004 .

[9]  M. Ausloos,et al.  Time-evolving distribution of time lags between commercial airline disasters , 2006 .

[10]  A. Schadschneider,et al.  Statistical physics of vehicular traffic and some related systems , 2000, cond-mat/0007053.

[11]  M. Fukui,et al.  Traffic Flow in 1D Cellular Automaton Model Including Cars Moving with High Speed , 1996 .

[12]  Hans G. Feichtinger,et al.  Analysis, Synthesis, and Estimation of Fractal-Rate Stochastic Point Processes , 1997, adap-org/9709006.

[13]  L. Telesca,et al.  On the scaling behavior of rain event sequence recorded in Basilicata region (Southern Italy) , 2004 .

[14]  Michael Schreckenberg,et al.  A cellular automaton model for freeway traffic , 1992 .

[15]  D W Huang,et al.  Mean-field theory for car accidents. , 2001, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[16]  L. Telesca,et al.  Depth‐dependent time‐clustering behaviour in seismicity of southern California , 2001 .

[17]  Xian-qing Yang,et al.  Car accidents determined by stopped cars and traffic flow , 2002 .

[18]  D. Helbing.  Traffic and related self-driven many-particle systems , 2000, cond-mat/0012229.

[19]  Eric Li,et al.  A nonstationary Poisson point process describes the sequence of action potentials over long time scales in lateral-superior-olive auditory neurons , 2004, Biological Cybernetics.

[20]  S Wells,et al.  The relationship between alcohol consumption patterns and car, work, sports and home accidents for different age groups. , 1999, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[21]  A. Aldroubi,et al.  Wavelets in Medicine and Biology , 1997 .

[22]  R De Raedt,et al.  Predicting at-fault car accidents of older drivers. , 2001, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[23]  D. W. Allan,et al.  Statistics of atomic frequency standards , 1966 .

[24]  Yue-min Zhao,et al.  Effects of a type of quenched randomness on car accidents in a cellular automaton model. , 2006, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[25]  Kalevi Mursula,et al.  The 13.5‐day periodicity in the Sun, solar wind, and geomagnetic activity: The last three solar cycles , 1996 .

[26]  M. Teich,et al.  The periodogram and Allan variance reveal fractal exponents greater than unity in auditory-nerve spike trains. , 1996, The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America.

[27]  Steven B. Lowen,et al.  ESTIMATION AND SIMULATION OF FRACTAL STOCHASTIC POINT PROCESSES , 1995 .

[28]  Ding-wei Huang,et al.  Exact results for car accidents in a traffic model , 1998 .

[29]  D W Huang,et al.  Car accidents on a single-lane highway. , 2001, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[30]  Teich,et al.  Fractal renewal processes generate 1/f noise. , 1993, Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics.