Modeling passenger trip reliability : why NextGen may not improve passenger delays

The airlines provide a critical service to the nation’s economy, providing rapid, safe, and affordable transportation over large geographic distances. The reliability of this transportation service, defined as the difference between the ticketed arrival time and the actual passenger arrival time, translates into economic productivity. For example, in 2007, the total delays experienced by airline passengers were estimated at 30,000 years. The estimated cost of these delays to the U.S. economy was $16.1B in lost economic productivity (NEXTOR, 2010). Further, one out of five passengers experienced a disrupted trip, and the average trip disruption was 110 minutes (Sherry, 2010; Barnhart et, al. 2010).