The volcanic risk - How hazardous is the gas accumulation in Lake Kivu? Arguments for a risk assesment in light of the Nyiragongo Volcano eruption of 2002

Lake Kivu is a special member in the chain of the East African Rift Lakes. Its deep waters contain high concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide and methane. On the one hand, the dissolved methane has the potential to become an important energy source for the bordering Republic of Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo. On the other hand, the high gas concentrations represent a considerable hazard: the conditions in Lake Kivu resemble those in the Cameroonian crater lakes Monoun and Nyos, where disastrous gas outbursts took place in 1984 and 1986. The eruption of the Nyiragongo Volcano to the north of Lake Kivu in January 2002, which led to the flow of about to6 m3 of lava into the lake, renewed the question whether such volcanic activity could trigger a devastating degassing from Lake Kivu. The results of an emergency expedition, which was undertaken shortly after the volcanic eruption, revealed no immediate danger caused by the inflowing lava. Although the probability of a catastrophe is rather limited, the possibility of hot lava-induced deep convection, followed by a disastrous gas outburst, cannot be completely ruled out. The present article provides an overview on the current knowledge of the stability of the stratification of Lake Kivu and its influence on the safety of the lake. Risk assessment arguments based on present day conditions are outlined and discussed.