Solar irradiation forecasting: state-of-the-art and proposition for future developments for small-scale insular grids

Because of the great integration of solar energy on the electrical network solar irradiance forecasting is becoming essential. In fact, this integration can offer a better quality of service if the solar irradiation variation can be predicted with great accuracy.This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods used to forecast solar irradiation in order to facilitate selection of forecast method according to needs. Our work starts with a presentation of physical models and techniques based on cloud imagery. Next statisticalapproaches are detailed before to discuss about hybrid model. Finally, we give indications for future solar irradiation forecasting approaches dedicated to the management of small-scale insular grids.

[1]  P. Akhter,et al.  A novel approach to estimate the clear day global radiation , 1991 .

[2]  A. Hammer,et al.  Short-term forecasting of solar radiation: a statistical approach using satellite data , 1999 .

[3]  Yoshishige Kemmoku,et al.  DAILY INSOLATION FORECASTING USING A MULTI-STAGE NEURAL NETWORK , 1999 .

[4]  Athanasios Sfetsos,et al.  Univariate and multivariate forecasting of hourly solar radiation with artificial intelligence techniques , 2000 .

[5]  G. Mihalakakou,et al.  The total solar radiation time series simulation in Athens, using neural networks , 2000 .

[6]  Detlev Heinemann,et al.  Short-Term Forecasting of Solar Radiation , 2000 .

[7]  A. Hammer,et al.  Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data , 2004 .

[8]  Shuanghua Cao,et al.  Forecast of solar irradiance using recurrent neural networks combined with wavelet analysis , 2005 .

[9]  S. H. Cao,et al.  Study of forecasting solar irradiance using neural networks with preprocessing sample data by wavelet analysis , 2006 .

[10]  Soteris A. Kalogirou,et al.  An adaptive wavelet-network model for forecasting daily total solar-radiation , 2006 .

[11]  S. N. Kaplanis,et al.  New methodologies to estimate the hourly global solar radiation; Comparisons with existing models , 2006 .

[12]  Richard Perez,et al.  Forecasting solar radiation – Preliminary evaluation of an approach based upon the national forecast database , 2007 .

[13]  Detlev Heinemann,et al.  FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS , 2007 .

[14]  Eleni Kaplani,et al.  A model to predict expected mean and stochastic hourly global solar radiation I(h;nj) values , 2007 .

[15]  John Boland,et al.  Generation of synthetic sequences of electricity demand: Application in South Australia , 2007 .

[16]  Richard Perez,et al.  COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA , 2008 .

[17]  Jiacong Cao,et al.  Application of the diagonal recurrent wavelet neural network to solar irradiation forecast assisted with fuzzy technique , 2008, Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell..

[18]  F. Hocaoglu,et al.  Hourly solar radiation forecasting using optimal coefficient 2-D linear filters and feed-forward neural networks , 2008 .

[19]  Adel Mellit,et al.  Artificial Intelligence technique for modelling and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review , 2008, Int. J. Artif. Intell. Soft Comput..

[20]  Soteris A. Kalogirou,et al.  Artificial intelligence techniques for photovoltaic applications: A review , 2008 .

[21]  Hans-Georg Beyer,et al.  Irradiance Forecasting for the Power Prediction of Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems , 2009, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing.

[22]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  Online short-term solar power forecasting , 2009 .

[23]  Gordon Reikard.  Predicting solar radiation at high resolutions: A comparison of time series forecasts , 2009 .

[24]  Nowcasting and forecasting of solar irradiance for solar energy electricity grid integration , 2009 .

[25]  J. A. Ruiz-Arias,et al.  Benchmarking of different approaches to forecast solar irradiance , 2009 .

[26]  T. Hoff,et al.  Validation of short and medium term operational solar radiation forecasts in the US , 2010 .

[27]  A. Mellit,et al.  A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy , 2010 .

[28]  J. Kleissl,et al.  Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States , 2011 .

[29]  C. K. Chan,et al.  Prediction of hourly solar radiation using a novel hybrid model of ARMA and TDNN , 2011 .

[30]  J. Kleissl,et al.  Intra-hour forecasting with a total sky imager at the UC San Diego solar energy testbed , 2011 .

[31]  Thierry Zami,et al.  Benchmarking of Different WSS and MCS Sizes in OXCs , 2014, 2014 Asia Communications and Photonics Conference (ACP).