Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: A case study in natural resource management
暂无分享,去创建一个
Victoria Hemming | Terry V Walshe | Anca M Hanea | Fiona Fidler | Mark A Burgman | F. Fidler | M. Burgman | T. Walshe | A. Hanea | V. Hemming
[1] Yael Grushka-Cockayne,et al. Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles? , 2012, Manag. Sci..
[2] Miriam Solomon,et al. Groupthink versus The Wisdom of Crowds: The Social Epistemology of Deliberation and Dissent , 2006 .
[3] Francis W. Zwiers,et al. Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties , 2010 .
[4] Max Henrion,et al. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis , 1990 .
[5] Mark A. Burgman,et al. Use of expert knowledge to elicit population trends for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) , 2016 .
[6] M. Ward,et al. Assessing the Risk of a Canine Rabies Incursion in Northern Australia , 2017, Front. Vet. Sci..
[7] Prue F. E. Addison,et al. Decision triggers are a critical part of evidence-based conservation , 2016 .
[8] E. Garcia-Vazquez,et al. DNA in a bottle—Rapid metabarcoding survey for early alerts of invasive species in ports , 2017, PloS one.
[9] K. Brockhoff,et al. The Performance of Forecasting Groups in Computer Dialogue and Face-to-face Discussion , 2002 .
[10] Ilan Yaniv. ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES, VOLUME 69, ISSUE 3 , 1997 .
[11] William H. Matthews,et al. Objective and Subjective Judgements in Environmental Impact Analysis , 1975, Environmental Conservation.
[12] Mark A. Burgman,et al. Redefining expertise and improving ecological judgment , 2011 .
[13] Prue F. E. Addison,et al. Towards quantitative condition assessment of biodiversity outcomes: Insights from Australian marine protected areas. , 2017, Journal of environmental management.
[14] J. Baum,et al. It is time to overcome unconscious bias in ecology , 2018, Nature Ecology & Evolution.
[15] M. Lepper,et al. Considering the opposite: a corrective strategy for social judgment. , 1984, Journal of personality and social psychology.
[16] Lynn A. Maguire,et al. Timing of Protection of Critical Habitat Matters , 2017 .
[17] Javier Seoane,et al. Effect of Expert Opinion on the Predictive Ability of Environmental Models of Bird Distribution , 2005 .
[18] David B. Lindenmayer,et al. Counting the books while the library burns: why conservation monitoring programs need a plan for action , 2013 .
[19] Mark A. Burgman,et al. Trusting Judgements: How to Get the Best out of Experts , 2015 .
[20] José J. Lahoz-Monfort,et al. Revealing beliefs: using ensemble ecosystem modelling to extrapolate expert beliefs to novel ecological scenarios , 2017 .
[21] Roger M. Cooke,et al. TU Delft expert judgment data base , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..
[22] Robin M. Hogarth,et al. Quality of Group Judgment , 1977 .
[23] Jane M. Booker,et al. Eliciting and analyzing expert judgement - a practical guide , 2001, ASA-SIAM series on statistics and applied probability.
[24] M. Colyvan,et al. Right Decisions or Happy Decision‐makers? , 2007 .
[25] Robert L. Winkler,et al. Limits for the Precision and Value of Information from Dependent Sources , 1985, Oper. Res..
[26] P. K. Black,et al. Discussion on the papers on 'Elicitation' , 1998 .
[27] Marc D. Street. Groupthink , 1997 .
[28] Simon French,et al. Expert Judgment, Meta-analysis, and Participatory Risk Analysis , 2012, Decis. Anal..
[29] K. Hughey,et al. Measuring the success and cost effectiveness of New Zealand multiple-species projects to the conservation of threatened species , 2005 .
[30] Lian Pin Koh,et al. Drones count wildlife more accurately and precisely than humans , 2017, bioRxiv.
[31] Cameron Anderson,et al. A status-enhancement account of overconfidence. , 2012, Journal of personality and social psychology.
[32] Fiona Fidler,et al. Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts , 2010, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.
[33] Philip E. Tetlock,et al. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction , 2015 .
[34] D. Lodge,et al. Ship-borne Nonindigenous Species Diminish Great Lakes Ecosystem Services , 2012, Ecosystems.
[35] Joslin L. Moore,et al. Improving visual estimation through active feedback , 2013 .
[36] Amnon Rapoport,et al. Measuring the Vague Meanings of Probability Terms , 1986 .
[37] Vicki M. Bier,et al. A study of expert overconfidence , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..
[38] Mary I Abercrombie,et al. Methylmercury exposure in a subsistence fishing community in Lake Chapala, Mexico: an ecological approach , 2010, Environmental health : a global access science source.
[39] Mark A. Burgman,et al. A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol , 2018 .
[40] Sydney E. Scott,et al. Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament , 2014, Psychological science.
[41] G. Brier. VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY , 1950 .
[42] Stephen C. Hora,et al. Probability Judgments for Continuous Quantities: Linear Combinations and Calibration , 2004, Manag. Sci..
[43] G. Gigerenzer,et al. Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight , 2003, BMJ : British Medical Journal.
[44] Kerrie Mengersen,et al. Elicitation by design in ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models. , 2009, Ecology.
[45] David M. Watson,et al. Structured elicitation of expert judgments for threatened species assessment: a case study on a continental scale using email , 2012 .
[46] Hugh P Possingham,et al. Six Common Mistakes in Conservation Priority Setting , 2013, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.
[47] Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita,et al. When do we need more data? A primer on calculating the value of information for applied ecologists , 2015 .
[48] Mark A. Burgman,et al. Expert Status and Performance , 2011, PloS one.
[49] Stephen P Ellner,et al. Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources. , 2016, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.
[50] D. Helbing,et al. How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[51] Ralph L. Keeney,et al. Adapting the environmental impact statement process to inform decision makers , 1992 .
[52] Richard P. Larrick,et al. Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle , 2006, Manag. Sci..
[53] R. Cooke,et al. Procedures Guide for Structural Expert Judgement in Accident Consequence Modelling , 2000 .
[54] G. Gigerenzer. How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases” , 1991 .
[55] Andrew Reeson,et al. Benefits of integrating complementarity into priority threat management , 2015, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.
[56] Stephen E. Fienberg,et al. The Comparison and Evaluation of Forecasters. , 1983 .
[57] R. Cooke. Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science , 1991 .
[58] J. Charles Kerkering,et al. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment, A Practical Guide , 2002, Technometrics.
[59] Linda R. Ashkenas,et al. A Stable Isotope Tracer Study of the Influences of Adjacent Land Use and Riparian Condition on Fates of Nitrate in Streams , 2011, Ecosystems.
[60] W. Dennison,et al. Extinction risk assessment of the world’s seagrass species , 2011 .
[61] Joshua Klayman,et al. Overconfidence in interval estimates. , 2004, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.
[62] Erik Lebret,et al. The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure , 2010, Environmental health : a global access science source.
[63] Rob J Hyndman,et al. Another look at measures of forecast accuracy , 2006 .
[64] Roger M. Cooke,et al. Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment , 2017, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..
[65] R. Nickerson. Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises , 1998 .
[66] Mark A. Burgman,et al. Toward rigorous use of expert knowledge in ecological research , 2013 .
[67] Roger M Cooke,et al. Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie , 2015, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.
[68] Mark A. Burgman,et al. Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological research , 2012 .
[69] Michael J. Stewardson,et al. Minimising biases in expert elicitations to inform environmental management: Case studies from environmental flows in Australia , 2018, Environ. Model. Softw..
[70] Sarah Valenti,et al. Extinction risk and conservation of the world’s sharks and rays , 2013, eLife.
[71] Robin M. Hogarth,et al. A note on aggregating opinions , 1978 .
[72] Sarah J. Converse,et al. Special Issue Article: Adaptive management for biodiversity conservation in an uncertain world Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program , 2011 .
[73] Matthew Asa Cashmore,et al. The role of science in environmental impact assessment: process and procedure versus purpose in the development of theory , 2004 .
[74] Simon C. Barry,et al. Prior elicitation for Bayesian generalised linear models with application to risk control option assessment , 2017, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..
[75] Jörg Hardy. Seeking the Truth and Taking Care for Common Goods–Plato on Expertise and Recognizing Experts , 2010, Episteme.
[76] A. Pullin,et al. Support for decision making in conservation practice: an evidence-based approach , 2003 .
[77] John Quigley,et al. Elicitation : The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement , 2017 .
[78] Mark A. Burgman,et al. I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement , 2017 .
[79] Richard P. Larrick,et al. The wisdom of select crowds. , 2014, Journal of personality and social psychology.
[80] Naomi S. Altman,et al. Points of Significance: Visualizing samples with box plots , 2014, Nature Methods.
[81] Dean P. Foster,et al. Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off , 1995 .
[82] Edmund A. Mennis. The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations , 2006 .
[83] A. Budden,et al. Big data and the future of ecology , 2013 .
[84] R. Gregory,et al. A Practical Approach to Address Uncertainty in Stakeholder Deliberations , 2017, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.
[85] David B. Lindenmayer,et al. Adaptive risk management for certifiably sustainable forestry , 2008 .
[86] F. Altermatt,et al. Utility of Environmental DNA for Monitoring Rare and Indicator Macroinvertebrate Species , 2014, Freshwater Science.
[87] Philip Thomas,et al. The Risk of Using Risk Matrices , 2013 .
[88] Laurence Smith,et al. The role of expert opinion in environmental modelling , 2012, Environ. Model. Softw..
[89] Magne Jørgensen,et al. When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals , 2005 .
[90] Helen M. Regan,et al. Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement , 2004 .
[91] Roger M. Cooke,et al. Quantifying scientific uncertainty from expert judgement elicitation , 2013 .
[92] A. Furnham,et al. A literature review of the anchoring effect , 2011 .
[93] Daniel Kahneman,et al. Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability , 1973 .
[94] Eva Chen,et al. Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds , 2015, Manag. Sci..
[95] James Shanteau,et al. How Can You Tell If Someone Is an Expert? Performance-Based Assessment of Expertise , 2003 .
[96] K. Mengersen,et al. Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science , 2012, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.
[97] Ryo Sakurai,et al. Citizen science: a new approach to advance ecology, education, and conservation , 2015, Ecological Research.
[98] Tara G Martin,et al. A guide to eliciting and using expert knowledge in Bayesian ecological models. , 2010, Ecology letters.
[99] Trevor Ward,et al. The condition of Australia's marine environment is good but in decline—An integrated evidence-based national assessment by expert elicitation , 2014 .
[100] R. W. Carter,et al. Conservation in the dark? The information used to support management decisions , 2010 .
[101] Stefan M. Herzog,et al. The Wisdom of Many in One Mind , 2009, Psychological science.
[102] A. H. Murphy,et al. “Good” Probability Assessors , 1968 .
[103] Franco Flandoli,et al. Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique , 2011, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..
[104] Baruch Fischhoff,et al. Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art , 1977 .
[105] Eve McDonald-Madden,et al. Acting fast helps avoid extinction , 2012 .
[106] Dean P. Foster,et al. Precision and Accuracy of Judgmental Estimation , 1997 .
[107] Sam Nicol,et al. Priority threat management of non-native plants to maintain ecosystem integrity across heterogeneous landscapes , 2015, Journal of Applied Ecology.
[108] P. Slovic. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk‐Assessment Battlefield , 1999, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.
[109] Marius Gilbert,et al. How do you find the green sheep? A critical review of the use of remotely sensed imagery to detect and count animals , 2018 .
[110] R. Pressey,et al. Assessing interactions of multiple stressors when data are limited: A Bayesian belief network applied to coral reefs , 2014 .
[111] P. Slovic,et al. Risk Perception and Affect , 2006 .