Measuring agricultural land-use intensity -A global analysis using a model-assisted approach

Human activities such as research & development, infrastructure or management are of major importance for agricultural productivity. These activities can be summarized as agricultural land-use intensity. We present a measure, called the τ-factor, which is an alternative to current measures for agricultural land-use intensity. The τ-factor is the ratio between actual yield and a reference yield under well defined management and technology conditions. By taking this ratio, the physical component (soils, climate), which is equal in both terms, is removed. We analyze global patterns of agricultural land-use intensity for 10 world regions and 12 crops, employing reference yields as computed with a global crop growth model for the year 2000. We show that parts of Russia, Asia and especially Africa had low agricultural land-use intensities, whereas the Eastern US, Western Europe and parts of China had high agricultural land-use intensities in 2000. Our presented measure of land use intensity is a useful alternative to existing measures, since it is independent of socio-economic data and allows for quantitative analysis.

[1]  C. Müller,et al.  Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns , 2010 .

[2]  C. Müller,et al.  The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis , 2010 .

[3]  W. Lucht,et al.  Terrestrial vegetation and water balance-hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model , 2004 .

[4]  C. Willmott.  Some Comments on the Evaluation of Model Performance , 1982 .

[5]  Navin Ramankutty,et al.  Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the ‘yield gap’ of croplands around the world? , 2010 .

[6]  Mieko Nishimizu.  Total factor productivity growth, technological progress and technical efficiency change : dimensions of productivity change in Yugoslavia, 1965-1978 , 1982 .

[7]  Goran Hyden,et al.  Population growth and agricultural change in Africa. , 1994 .

[8]  J. Dietrich.  Efficient treatment of cross-scale interactions in a land-use model , 2011 .

[9]  C. Kucharik,et al.  Closing the gap: global potential for increasing biofuel production through agricultural intensification , 2011 .

[10]  Billie Turner,et al.  The concept and measure of agricultural intensity , 1978 .

[11]  C. Müller,et al.  Climate‐driven simulation of global crop sowing dates , 2012 .

[12]  R. Rabbinge,et al.  Concepts in production ecology for analysis and quantification of agricultural input-output combinations , 1997 .

[13]  M. Jeuffroy,et al.  Intensive versus low-input cropping systems: What is the optimal partitioning of agricultural area in order to reduce pesticide use while maintaining productivity? , 2010 .

[14]  M. Rosegrant,et al.  Ending Hunger in Our Lifetime: Food Security and Globalization , 2003 .

[15]  W. Lucht,et al.  Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system , 2008 .

[16]  R. Färe,et al.  Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries , 1994 .

[17]  R. Evenson,et al.  Assessing the Impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000 , 2003, Science.

[18]  J. Bruinsma.  World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030: An Fao Perspective , 2002 .

[19]  A. J. Shriar,et al.  Agricultural intensity and its measurement in frontier regions , 2000, Agroforestry Systems.

[20]  Julian M. Alston,et al.  A meta-analysis of rates of return to agricultural R&D : ex pede Herculem? , 2000 .

[21]  Joachim von Braun,et al.  The world food situation: New driving forces and required actions [In Chinese] , 2007 .

[22]  P. Döll,et al.  MIRCA2000—Global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: A new high‐resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling , 2010 .

[23]  Eric F. Lambin,et al.  Are agricultural land-use models able to predict changes in land-use intensity? , 2000 .

[24]  Ester Boserup,et al.  The conditions of agricultural growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure , 1966 .

[25]  Goran Hyden,et al.  Population growth and agricultural change in Africa. , 1994 .

[26]  Dieter Gerten,et al.  Effects of Precipitation Uncertainty on Discharge Calculations for Main River Basins , 2009 .

[27]  J. Berry,et al.  A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species , 1980, Planta.

[28]  Channing Arndt,et al.  Bridging the Gap between Partial and Total Factor Productivity Measures Using Directional Distance Functions , 2003 .

[29]  E. Boserup.  The conditions of agricultural growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure , 1966 .

[30]  R. Netting.  Smallholders, Householders: Farm Families and the Ecology of Intensive, Sustainable Agriculture , 1994 .

[31]  N. Ramankutty,et al.  Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000 , 2008 .

[32]  T. Coelli,et al.  Total Factor Productivity Growth in Agriculture: A Malmquist Index Analysis of 93 Countries, 1980-2000 * , 2003 .

[33]  C. Müller,et al.  Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance , 2007 .

[34]  M. Rounsevell,et al.  Future scenarios of European agricultural land use: I. Estimating changes in crop productivity , 2005 .

[35]  Prabhu Pingali,et al.  Westernization of Asian Diets and the transformation of food systems: Implications for research and policy , 2007 .

[36]  Giovanni Federico,et al.  Feeding the World , 2010 .

[37]  Alberto Montanari,et al.  Estimating the uncertainty of hydrological forecasts: A statistical approach , 2008 .

[38]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model , 2003 .

[39]  W. Wagner,et al.  Evaluation of the agreement between the first global remotely sensed soil moisture data with model and precipitation data , 2003 .

[40]  E. Lambin,et al.  INAUGURAL ARTICLE by a Recently Elected Academy Member:Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity , 2011 .

[41]  T. Carter,et al.  Future scenarios of European agricultural land use: II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland , 2005 .

[42]  Laura Lorenzoni,et al.  Si cycle in the Cariaco Basin, Venezuela: Seasonal variability in silicate availability and the Si:C:N composition of sinking particles , 2008 .

[43]  G. Collatz,et al.  Coupled Photosynthesis-Stomatal Conductance Model for Leaves of C4 Plants , 1992 .

[44]  B. Beattie.  Science Under Scarcity: Principles and Practice for Agricultural Research Evaluation and Priority Setting , 1995 .