Methods and Tools

Risk-based ship design demands advanced tools to accomplish the safety assessment of a given design. In this chapter, the background theory for the development and examples of application of related risk-based tools and of assessment procedures will be given. These tools and methods facilitate the analysis of the initiation and of the consequences of a variety of hazards, like system failure, collision, grounding, structural failure, fire, flooding and loss of intact stability. Finally tools for the simulation and analysis of evacuation, mustering & rescue procedures will be presented.

[1]  R. Rackwitz,et al.  Structural reliability under combined random load sequences , 1978 .

[2]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems - networks of plausible inference , 1991, Morgan Kaufmann series in representation and reasoning.

[3]  Banque Interaméricaine de Développement,et al.  Assessment of Participatory Budgeting in Brazil , 2005 .

[4]  David W. Coit,et al.  Reliability optimization of series-parallel systems using a genetic algorithm , 1996, IEEE Trans. Reliab..

[5]  Anders Melchior Hansen Strength of midship sections , 1996 .

[6]  Martin Walker,et al.  Semi Automatic Failure Analysis Based on Simulation Models , 2008 .

[7]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Reliability-Based Design of the Primary Structure of Oil Tankers , 1997 .

[8]  Armen Der Kiureghian,et al.  Design-point excitation for non-linear random vibrations , 2005 .

[9]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Time domain modelling of the transient asymmetric flooding of Ro-Ro ships , 2002 .

[10]  Lionel Palazzi,et al.  SURVIVABILITY OF A DAMAGED FRIGATE IN WAVES – A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH , 2004 .

[11]  Michael S. Pantazopoulos THREE-DIMENSIONAL SLOSHING OF WATER ON DECKS , 1988 .

[12]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Assessment of partial safety factors for the longitudinal strength of tankers , 2006 .

[13]  Lars Grunske,et al.  Identifying "good" architectural design alternatives with multi-objective optimization strategies , 2006, ICSE.

[14]  Yoji Himeno,et al.  Prediction of Ship Roll Damping. A State of the Art , 1981 .

[15]  Preben Terndrup Pedersen,et al.  A Dynamic Model for Roll Motion of Ships Due to Flooding: Technical Report for the Damage Stability Modeling of the Safety of Passenger/RoRo Vessel Project , 1997 .

[16]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  RO-RO SHIP DAMAGE STABILITY CALCULATIONS USING THE PRESSURE INTEGRATION TECHNIQUE , 2001 .

[17]  H Vermeer,et al.  SYSTEMATIC MODEL EXPERIMENTS ON FLOODING OF TWO RO-RO VESSELS. , 1997 .

[18]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Fatigue reliability of the ship hull girder accounting for inspection and repair , 1996 .

[19]  Shosuke Inoue,et al.  Hydrodynamic derivatives on ship manoeuvring , 1981 .

[20]  W. Cummins THE IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION AND SHIP MOTIONS , 2010 .

[21]  Ulrik Dam Nielsen,et al.  Estimations of on-site directional wave spectra from measured ship responses , 2006 .

[22]  Finn Verner Jensen,et al.  Introduction to Bayesian Networks , 2008, Innovations in Bayesian Networks.

[23]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Combination of primary load effects in ship structures , 1992 .

[24]  E. J. Gumbel,et al.  Statistics of Extremes. , 1960 .

[25]  Dracos Vassalos,et al.  Dynamic stability assessment of damaged passenger/ro-ro ships and proposal of rational survival criteria , 1997 .

[26]  M. Neves,et al.  A coupled third order model of roll parametric resonance , 2006 .

[27]  U. Korde Efficient primary energy conversion in irregular waves , 1999 .

[28]  Ulrich Schmitt,et al.  Influential Evaluations: Detailed Case Studies Operations Evaluation Department World Bank Operations Evaluation Department January 2005 Influential Evaluations: Detailed Case Studies Enhancing Development Effectiveness through Excellence and Independence in Evaluation Abbreviations and Acronyms Asd , 2005 .

[29]  Gianpaolo Baiocchi,et al.  Evaluating Empowerment: Participatory Budgeting in Brazilian Municipalities. , 2006 .

[30]  I W Dand HYDRODYNAMIC ASPECTS OF THE SINKING OF THE FERRY 'HERALD OF FREE ENTERPRISE' , 1989 .

[31]  Dracos Vassalos,et al.  Issues related to the weather criterion , 2004 .

[32]  Riaan van ‘t Veer,et al.  LARGE PASSENGER SHIP SAFETY: TIME-TO-FLOOD SIMULATIONS , 2004 .

[33]  R. Rackwitz Reliability analysis—a review and some perspectives , 2001 .

[34]  Dimitris Spanos,et al.  Numerical simulation of a fishing vessel in parametric roll in head seas , 2006 .

[35]  J. Kat Dynamics of a ship with partially flooded compartment , 2000 .

[36]  Michele La Rocca,et al.  ON THE ANALYSIS OF SLOSHING OF WATER IN RECTANGULAR CONTAINERS: NUMERICAL STUDY AND EXPERIMENTAL VALIDATION , 1996 .

[37]  B. L. Hutchison,et al.  Model experiments to determine the survivability limits of damaged RO-RO ferries in waves. Discussion. Authors' closure , 1997 .

[38]  Samuel Paul Making Voice Work: The Report Card on Bangalore's Public Service , 1998 .

[39]  H Vermeer,et al.  MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF MOTIONS AND DAMAGED STABILITY OF RO-RO SHIPS IN THE INTERMEDIATE STAGES OF FLOODING , 1994 .

[40]  Bruce L. Hutchison Water-on-deck accumulation studies by the SNAME ad hoc Ro-Ro safety panel , 2000 .

[41]  Torgeir Moan,et al.  STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC COMBINATIONS OF STILL WATER AND WAVE BENDING MOMENTS IN SHIPS , 1996 .

[42]  Kalman Žiha,et al.  Tracing The Ultimate Longitudinal Strength of a Damaged Ship Hull Girder , 2002 .

[43]  Thomas W. Treakle,et al.  An Investigation of Head-Sea Parametric Rolling and its Influence on Container Lashing Systems , 2003 .

[44]  D. Faulkner A REVIEW OF EFFECTIVE PLATING TO BE USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF STIFFENED PLATING IN BENDING AND COMPRESSION , 1973 .

[45]  S Haugen,et al.  PROBABILISTIC EVALUATION OF FREQUENCY OF COLLISION BETWEEN SHIPS AND OFFSHORE PLATFORMS , 1991 .

[46]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Abnormal Wave-Induced Load Effects in Ship Structures , 2008 .

[47]  L.J.M Adegeest,et al.  Use of non-linear sea-loads simulations in design of ships , 1998 .

[48]  Michel Pimbert,et al.  Prajateerpu: a Citizens Jury / Scenario Workshop on Food and Farming Futures for Andhra Pradesh , 2002 .

[49]  Alaa E. Mansour,et al.  PROBABILISTIC DESIGN CONCEPTS IN SHIP STRUCTURAL SAFETY AND RELIABILITY , 1972 .

[50]  Gabriele Bulian,et al.  Nonlinear parametric rolling in regular waves—a general procedure for the analytical approximation of the GZ curve and its use in time domain simulations , 2005 .

[51]  Lionel Palazzi,et al.  Model Experiments and Simulations of a Damaged Ship With Air Flow Taken Into Account , 2004 .

[52]  G. Christiansen,et al.  A mesoscopic model for passenger evacuation in a virtual ship-sea environment and performance-based evaluation , 2002 .

[53]  Carlos Guedes Soares,et al.  Chapter 6 Probabilistic models of waves in the coastal zone , 2003 .

[54]  J R Spouge THE TECHNICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE SINKING OF THE RO/RO FERRY EUROPEAN GATEWAY , 1986 .

[55]  Z. Huang,et al.  Nonlinear shallow-water flow on deck , 1996 .

[56]  Edwin R. Galea,et al.  Simulation of ship evacuation and passenger circulation , 2004 .

[57]  Michael Schreckenberg,et al.  Pedestrian and evacuation dynamics , 2002 .

[58]  S. Jain,et al.  Handbook for trainers on participatory local development: The Panchayati Raj model in India , 2003 .

[59]  Aaron Schneider,et al.  Budgets and ballots in Brazil : participatory budgeting from the city to the state , 2002 .

[60]  Peter Friis Hansen,et al.  Reliability Analysis of Dynamic Stability in Waves , 2004 .

[61]  Jørgen Juncher Jensen,et al.  Efficient estimation of extreme non-linear roll motions using the first-order reliability method (FORM) , 2007 .

[62]  Yiannis Papadopoulos,et al.  EFFECTIVE MULTICRITERIA REDUNDANCY ALLOCATION VIA MODEL-BASED SAFETY ANALYSIS , 2007 .

[63]  Johan Andersson,et al.  A method for evaluating functional content in mechatronic systems using optimisation , 2003 .

[64]  Janmejay Singh,et al.  Citizen report card surveys : a note on the concept and methodology , 2004 .

[65]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Structural reliability of two bulk carrier designs , 2000 .

[66]  Alaa E. Mansour,et al.  Estimation of ship motions using closed-form expressions , 2004 .

[67]  Alaa E. Mansour,et al.  ON APPLYING THE STATISTICAL APPROACH TO EXTREME SEA LOADS AND SHIP HULL STRENGTH , 1972 .

[68]  R. Stott,et al.  The World Bank , 2008, Annals of tropical medicine and parasitology.

[69]  Heinrich Söding,et al.  COMPUTING CAPSIZING FREQUENCIES OF SHIPS IN A SEAWAY , 1986 .

[70]  A. Kiureghian The geometry of random vibrations and solutions by FORM and SORM , 2000 .

[71]  P Sen,et al.  A TIME SIMULATION APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGE SURVIVABILITY OF RO/RO CARGO SHIPS , 1987 .

[72]  Osman Turan Dynamic stability assessment of damaged passenger ships using a time simulation approach , 1993 .

[73]  Marvin Rausand,et al.  The basic concepts of failure analysis , 1996 .

[74]  A. B. Stavovy,et al.  ULTIMATE LONGITUDINAL STRENGTH , 1970 .

[75]  Eliana Guerra Citizenship knows no age: children’s participation in the governance and municipal budget of Barra Mansa, Brazil , 2002 .

[76]  Kostas J. Spyrou,et al.  Designing against parametric instability in following seas , 2000 .

[77]  Alberto Francescutto,et al.  A simplified modular approach for the prediction of the roll motion due to the combined action of wind and waves , 2004 .

[78]  Y Cabannes Participatory Budgeting: Conceptual Framework and Analysis of its Contribution to Urban Governance and the Millenium Development Goals , 2004 .

[79]  Jørgen Juncher Jensen,et al.  Most Likely Response Waves for Estimation of Extreme Value Ship Response Statistics , 2004 .

[80]  C. W. Hirt,et al.  Volume of fluid (VOF) method for the dynamics of free boundaries , 1981 .

[81]  Armin W. Troesch,et al.  Design wave elevations leading to extreme roll motion , 2006 .

[82]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Comparative study on the time-domain analysis of non-linear ship motions and loads , 1999 .

[83]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Design equation for the compressive strength of unstiffened plate elements with initial imperfections , 1988 .

[84]  Henry Chen,et al.  Criteria for parametric roll of large containerships in longitudinal seas. Discussion , 2004 .

[85]  D. Povel,et al.  Implementing Ship Motion in AENEAS — Model Development and First Results , 2007 .

[86]  John A. McDermid,et al.  Analysis and synthesis of the behaviour of complex programmable electronic systems in conditions of failure , 2001, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[87]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Study of damaged ship motions taking into account floodwater dynamics , 2008 .

[88]  Dracos Vassalos,et al.  A realistic approach to assessing the damage survivability of passenger ships. Discussion. Authors' closure , 1994 .

[89]  Dimitris Spanos,et al.  ON THE PROBABILITY OF CAPSIZING IN TRANSIENT FLOODING CONDITIONS , 2002 .

[90]  Jeff Dillingham,et al.  MOTION STUDIES OF A VESSEL WITH WATER ON DECK , 1980 .

[91]  P. Coombs,et al.  The International Institute for Educational Planning , 1966 .

[92]  Pekka Ruponen,et al.  Validation of a simulation method for progressive flooding , 2007 .

[93]  J R Paulling,et al.  THE SIMULATION OF SHIP MOTIONS AND CAPSIZING IN SEVERE SEAS , 1989 .

[94]  R. Reinikka,et al.  Do Budgets Really Matter? Evidence from Public Spending on Education and Health in Uganda , 1998 .

[95]  C. Guedes Soares,et al.  Probabilistic modelling of time-varying still-water load effects in tankers , 2000 .

[96]  J. Glimm Solutions in the large for nonlinear hyperbolic systems of equations , 1965 .

[97]  Yoshiho Ikeda,et al.  5. Viscous Effect on Damping Forces of Ship in Sway and Roll Coupled Motion , 1981 .

[98]  Alaa E. Mansour,et al.  Development of reliability based classification rules for tankers , 2003 .

[99]  Ge Wang,et al.  Calibration of the Hull Girder Ultimate Capacity Criterion for Double Hull Tankers , 2007 .

[100]  G. Lindgren,et al.  Some Properties of a Normal Process Near a Local Maximum , 1970 .

[101]  Ove Ditlevsen,et al.  Model‐Correction‐Factor Method in Structural Reliability , 1994 .

[102]  Jørgen Juncher Jensen,et al.  Extreme response predictions for jack-up units in second order stochastic waves by FORM , 2006 .

[103]  J O Kat The Numerical Modeling of Ship Motions and Capsizing in Severe Seas , 1990 .

[104]  C. S. Smith,et al.  Influence of Local Compressive Failure on Ultimate Longitudinal Strength of a Ship's Hull , 1977 .

[105]  P. Ruponen Progressive flooding of a damaged passenger ship , 2007 .

[106]  P. K. Das,et al.  Survivability and reliability of damaged ships after collision and grounding , 2005 .

[107]  Manolis Samuelides,et al.  Benchmark study on the use of simplified structural codes to predict the ultimate strength of a damaged ship hull , 2008 .

[108]  C. Souza Participatory budgeting in Brazilian cities: limits and possibilities in building democratic institutions , 2001 .

[109]  Paul M. Hagemeijer,et al.  A New Model For The Kinematics Of Large Ocean Waves-Application As a Design Wave , 1991 .

[110]  S. Hsieh,et al.  A nonlinear probabilistic method for predicting vessel capsizing in random beam seas , 1994, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[111]  Jeffrey M. Falzarano,et al.  Analysis of the Dynamical Behaviour of an Offshore Supply Vessel With Water on Deck , 2002 .

[112]  Yiannis Papadopoulos,et al.  Evolving car designs using model-based automated safety analysis and optimisation techniques , 2005, J. Syst. Softw..

[113]  Arvid Naess,et al.  Technical note: On the long-term statistics of extremes , 1984 .

[114]  Bor-Chau Chang,et al.  Survivability of damaged RO-RO passenger vessels , 2000 .

[115]  R. M. Isherwood WIND RESISTANCE OF MERCHANT SHIPS , 1972 .

[116]  Xiao Ye Canagarajah,et al.  Efficiency of public expenditure distribution and beyond : a report on Ghana's 2000 public expenditure tracking survey in the sectors of primary health and education , 2002 .

[117]  Jeom Kee Paik,et al.  RESIDUAL STRENGTH ASSESSMENT OF SHIPS AFTER COLLISION AND GROUNDING , 1998 .