Development Scale of Urban Passenger Traffic Vehicle Considering the Variety of Population Structure

With population aging quickly, the variation of age structure has a great impact on traffic demand of the whole society. In the context of the varieties of population development and age structure, a population development model was introduced to analyze the influence of age structure on the trips and travel mode.Then, based on the travel demand changes resulting from population development, the AHP (analytic hierarchy process) methodwas applied to forecast the scale of urban passenger traffic vehicle. Finally, an example (Development scale forecast of urban passenger vehicle of Zhangjiagang) was taken to validate the methodology and the computational result indicates that this means is reasonable.