A quantitative risk assessment for the occurrence of campylobacter in chickens at the point of slaughter

A quantitative risk assessment model investigating the risk of human infection with campylobacter from the consumption of chicken meat/products is currently being formulated. Here such an approach is used to evaluate the probability that a random bird, selected at slaughter from Great Britain's national poultry flock, will be campylobacter-positive. This is determined from the probability that a flock chosen at random contains at least one colonized bird and the within-flock prevalence of such a flock at slaughter. The model indicates that the probability bird chosen at random being campylobacter-positive at slaughter is 0·53. This probability value has associated uncertainty, the 5th percentile being 0·51 and the 95th percentile 0·55. The model predicts that delaying the age at first exposure to campylobacter can have a significant impact on reducing the probability of a bird being campylobacter-positive at slaughter. However, implementation of current biosecurity methods makes this difficult to achieve.

[1]  H R Smith,et al.  A study of infectious intestinal disease in England: microbiological findings in cases and controls. , 1999, Communicable disease and public health.

[2]  R. H. Bailey,et al.  Incidence of Campylobacter in crops of preharvest market-age broiler chickens. , 1998, Poultry science.

[3]  M H Cassin,et al.  Quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers. , 1998, International journal of food microbiology.

[4]  G. Mead,et al.  Campylobacter jejuni in poultry production and processing in relation to public health , 1998 .

[5]  N. Stern,et al.  Epidemiological study of Campylobacter spp. in broilers: source, time of colonization, and prevalence. , 1997, Avian diseases.

[6]  R. C. Whiting,et al.  Development of a quantitative risk assessment model for Salmonella enteritidis in pasteurized liquid eggs. , 1997, International journal of food microbiology.

[7]  C. Mcnulty,et al.  Outbreak of campylobacter enteritis in a residential school associated with bird pecked bottle tops. , 1997, Communicable disease report. CDR review.

[8]  David Vose,et al.  Quantitative Risk Analysis: A Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation Modelling , 1996 .

[9]  N. Bolder,et al.  Epidemiology of Campylobacter spp. at two Dutch broiler farms , 1995, Epidemiology and Infection.

[10]  T. Humphrey,et al.  The colonization of broiler chickens with Campylobacter jejuni: some epidemiological investigations , 1993, Epidemiology and Infection.

[11]  W. Jacobs-Reitsma,et al.  Study on the epidemiology and control of Campylobacter jejuni in poultry broiler flocks , 1992, Applied and environmental microbiology.

[12]  E J Orav,et al.  A generalized chain binomial model with application to HIV infection. , 1990, Mathematical biosciences.

[13]  T. Sorrell,et al.  Horizontal transmission of Campylobacter jejuni amongst broiler chicks: experimental studies , 1990, Epidemiology and Infection.

[14]  A P Preston,et al.  Movement of broiler chickens reared in commercial conditions. , 1989, British poultry science.

[15]  A. Annan-Prah,et al.  The mode of spread of Campylobacter jejuni/coli to broiler flocks. , 1988, Zentralblatt fur Veterinarmedizin. Reihe B. Journal of veterinary medicine. Series B.

[16]  John A. Jacquez,et al.  A note on chain-binomial models of epidemic spread: What is wrong with the Reed-Frost formulation? , 1987 .

[17]  M. Danielsson-Tham,et al.  Colonization of Broilers with Campylobacter in Conventional Broiler-Chicken Flocks , 1986, Acta Veterinaria Scandinavica.

[18]  N. Weiss,et al.  The role of poultry and meats in the etiology of Campylobacter jejuni/coli enteritis. , 1986, American journal of public health.

[19]  N. Ling.  The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and its applications , 1978 .

[20]  E. Collias,et al.  Locality fixation, mobility and social organization within an unconfined population of red jungle fowl. , 1966, Animal behaviour.

[21]  Farm Buildings,et al.  Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- , 1956 .

[22]  Shell Eggs,et al.  Salmonella Enteritidis Risk Assessment , 1998 .

[23]  A. Scialli,et al.  Risk assessment methods: Approaches for assessing health and environmental risks , 1995 .

[24]  K. Fukuda,et al.  Simulation of infectious disease by Reed-Frost model with proportion of immune and inapparent infection. , 1984, Computers in biology and medicine.

[25]  G. McBride,et al.  Social and spatial organization of male behaviour in mated domestic fowl , 1983 .

[26]  Alexander Grey,et al.  The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and Its Applications , 1977 .

[27]  G. McBride,et al.  The Social Organization and Behaviour of the Feral Domestic Fowl , 1969 .

[28]  G. McBride,et al.  Territorial Behaviour in Flocks of Domestic Fowls , 1962, Nature.