(Un)predictability in Traffic and Transport Decision Making

Ill predictability is often a problem in decision making in the domain of traffic and transport. Especially posing problems are the uncertainty of short-term processes in the traffic process, such as congestion, and of long-term forecasts. Results are reported from a study of the limits to predictability. The sources of uncertainty are described: on the one hand, uncertainty and incompleteness of data and models, and, on the other hand, intrinsic uncertainties due to the complexity of the processes, such as chaos and nonlinearity, human behavior, and changing values and goals. The role of uncertainties in decision making is highlighted, and suggestions are given for improving the decision-making process. The role of forecasts in different kinds of decision making, with different kinds of information requirements, is described.

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