Hierarchical beam search for solving most relevant explanation in Bayesian networks

Most Relevant Explanation (MRE) is an inference problem in Bayesian networks that finds the most relevant partial instantiation of target variables as an explanation for given evidence. It has been shown in recent literature that it addresses the overspecification problem of existing methods, such as MPE and MAP. In this paper, we propose a novel hierarchical beam search algorithm for solving MRE. The main idea is to use a second-level beam to limit the number of successors generated by the same parent so as to limit the similarity between the solutions in the first-level beam and result in a more diversified population. Three pruning criteria are also introduced to achieve further diversity. Empirical results show that the new algorithm typically outperforms local search and regular beam search.

[1]  Branden Fitelson,et al.  Likelihoodism, Bayesianism, and relational confirmation , 2007, Synthese.

[2]  Changhe Yuan,et al.  Most Relevant Explanation in Bayesian Networks , 2011, J. Artif. Intell. Res..

[3]  Changhe Yuan,et al.  An Exact Algorithm for Solving Most Relevant Explanation in Bayesian Networks , 2015, AAAI.

[4]  I.,et al.  Weight of Evidence : A Brief Survey , 2006 .

[5]  André Elisseeff,et al.  Explanation Trees for Causal Bayesian Networks , 2008, UAI.

[6]  Thomas G. Dietterich Multiple Classifier Systems , 2000, Lecture Notes in Computer Science.

[7]  Fred Glover,et al.  Tabu Search: A Tutorial , 1990 .

[8]  Carmen Lacave,et al.  A review of explanation methods for Bayesian networks , 2002, The Knowledge Engineering Review.

[9]  Nir Friedman,et al.  Probabilistic Graphical Models - Principles and Techniques , 2009 .

[10]  Xi Chen,et al.  Evaluating computational models of explanation using human judgments , 2013, UAI.

[11]  Stuart J. Russell,et al.  Adaptive Probabilistic Networks with Hidden Variables , 1997, Machine Learning.

[12]  大西 仁,et al.  Pearl, J. (1988, second printing 1991). Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference. Morgan-Kaufmann. , 1994 .

[13]  Gregory F. Cooper,et al.  The ALARM Monitoring System: A Case Study with two Probabilistic Inference Techniques for Belief Networks , 1989, AIME.

[14]  Changhe Yuan,et al.  Most Relevant Explanation: Properties, Algorithms, and Evaluations , 2009, UAI.

[15]  YuanChanghe,et al.  Most relevant explanation in Bayesian networks , 2011 .

[16]  Changhe Yuan,et al.  Exact Algorithms for MRE Inference , 2016, J. Artif. Intell. Res..

[17]  Changhe Yuan,et al.  Most Relevant Explanation: computational complexity and approximation methods , 2011, Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence.

[18]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems - networks of plausible inference , 1991, Morgan Kaufmann series in representation and reasoning.

[19]  Raj Reddy,et al.  The LOCUS Model of Search and its Use in Image Interpretation , 1977, IJCAI.