Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine-preventable diseases.

The long‐term management of global disease eradication initiatives involves numerous inherently dynamic processes, health and economic trade‐offs, significant uncertainty and variability, rare events with big consequences, complex and interrelated decisions, and a requirement for cooperation among a large number of stakeholders. Over the course of more than 16 years of collaborative modeling efforts to support the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, we developed increasingly complex integrated system dynamics models that combined numerous analytical approaches, including differential equation‐based modeling, risk and decision analysis, discrete‐event and individual‐based simulation, probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, health economics and optimization. We discuss the central role of systems thinking and system dynamics in the overall effort and the value of integrating different modeling approaches to appropriately address the trade‐offs involved in some of the policy questions. We discuss practical challenges of integrating different analytical tools and we provide our perspective on the future of integrated modeling. Copyright © 2018 System Dynamics Society

[1]  P E Fine,et al.  Herd immunity: history, theory, practice. , 1993, Epidemiologic reviews.

[2]  M. Mulders,et al.  Poliomyelitis outbreak in an unvaccinated community in the Netherlands, 1992-93 , 1994, The Lancet.

[3]  Modeling the costs and benefits of temporary recommendations for poliovirus exporting countries to vaccinate international travelers , 2017, Vaccine.

[4]  K M Thompson,et al.  Development of an individual-based model for polioviruses: implications of the selection of network type and outcome metrics , 2010, Epidemiology and Infection.

[5]  K. Thompson,et al.  Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of inadvertent trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine use , 2016, BMC Infectious Diseases.

[6]  T. Chin,et al.  Poliomyelitis in Des Moines, Iowa, 1959. The influence of Salk vaccination on the epidemic pattern and the spread of the virus in the community. , 1961, American journal of hygiene.

[7]  R. D. Tebbens,et al.  How should we prepare for an outbreak of reintroduced live polioviruses , 2017 .

[8]  M. Pallansch,et al.  Review and Assessment of Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission: Synthesis of Knowledge Gaps and Identification of Research Needs , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[9]  J. Melnick.  Poliovirus and Other Enteroviruses , 1997 .

[10]  M. Pallansch,et al.  Preeradication Vaccine Policy Options for Poliovirus Infection and Disease Control , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[11]  K. Thompson,et al.  The probability of undetected wild poliovirus circulation after apparent global interruption of transmission. , 2012, American journal of epidemiology.

[12]  Steve Leach,et al.  Potential Impact of Antiviral Drug Use during Influenza Pandemic , 2005, Emerging infectious diseases.

[13]  R. Price,et al.  Improving the radical cure of vivax malaria (IMPROV): a study protocol for a multicentre randomised, placebo-controlled comparison of short and long course primaquine regimens , 2015, BMC Infectious Diseases.

[14]  Modeling strategies to increase population immunity and prevent poliovirus transmission in the high-risk area of northwest Nigeria. , 2014, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[15]  M. Pallansch,et al.  Individual-based modeling of potential poliovirus transmission in connected religious communities in North America with low uptake of vaccination. , 2014, Journal of Infectious Diseases.

[16]  N. Nathanson,et al.  From Emergence to Eradication: The Epidemiology of Poliomyelitis Deconstructed , 2010, American journal of epidemiology.

[17]  Prashant Yadav,et al.  Impact of treatment heterogeneity on drug resistance and supply chain costs☆ , 2013, Socio-economic planning sciences.

[18]  K. Thompson,et al.  The potential benefits of a new poliovirus vaccine for long-term poliovirus risk management. , 2016, Future Microbiology.

[19]  K. Thompson,et al.  Lessons From the Polio Endgame: Overcoming the Failure to Vaccinate and the Role of Subpopulations in Maintaining Transmission , 2017, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[20]  R. D. Tebbens,et al.  Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Cost Assumptions for Global LongtermPoliovirus Risk Management , 2016 .

[21]  K. Thompson,et al.  Modeling the dynamics of oral poliovirus vaccine cessation. , 2014, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[22]  R. Sutter,et al.  Vaccine-derived polioviruses. , 2014, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[23]  G. Armstrong,et al.  Possible Eradication of Wild Poliovirus Type 3 — Worldwide, 2012 , 2014, MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report.

[24]  R. Sutter,et al.  Outbreaks of paralytic poliomyelitis during 1996-2012: the changing epidemiology of a disease in the final stages of eradication. , 2014, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[25]  Jan H. Kwakkel,et al.  Simulating endogenous dynamics of intervention-capacity deployment: Ebola outbreak in Liberia , 2017 .

[26]  K. Thompson,et al.  Managing the risk of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus during the endgame: oral poliovirus vaccine needs , 2015, BMC Infectious Diseases.

[27]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  Eradication versus control for poliomyelitis: an economic analysis , 2007, The Lancet.

[28]  M. Pallansch,et al.  An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013–2052 , 2015, BMC Infectious Diseases.

[29]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Decision Analytic Model for Posteradication Polio Risk Management , 2008, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[30]  K. Thompson,et al.  Health and economic consequences of different options for timing the coordinated global cessation of the three oral poliovirus vaccine serotypes , 2015, BMC Infectious Diseases.

[31]  Kimberly M. Thompson,et al.  Using system dynamics to develop policies that matter: global management of poliomyelitis and beyond , 2008 .

[32]  S. Plotkin,et al.  27 – Poliovirus vaccine—inactivated , 2013 .

[33]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  The Costs of Future Polio Risk Management Policies , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[34]  D J Nokes,et al.  The transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in the UK: a mathematical model for evaluating costs and effectiveness of immunization programmes , 1996, Epidemiology and Infection.

[35]  W. John Edmunds,et al.  Cost-effectiveness of Antiviral Stockpiling and Near-Patient Testing for Potential Influenza Pandemic , 2008, Emerging infectious diseases.

[36]  P. Geoffard,et al.  Disease Eradication: Private versus Public Vaccination , 1997 .

[37]  C. Woodbury.  Suburbanization and suburbia. , 1955, American journal of public health and the nation's health.

[38]  P. Fine,et al.  Stopping a polio outbreak in the post-eradication era. , 2001, Developments in biologicals.

[39]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  The risks, costs, and benefits of possible future global policies for managing polioviruses. , 2008, American journal of public health.

[40]  M. Pallansch,et al.  Economic analysis of the global polio eradication initiative. , 2010, Vaccine.

[41]  K. Thompson,et al.  National choices related to inactivated poliovirus vaccine, innovation and the endgame of global polio eradication , 2014, Expert review of vaccines.

[42]  K. Thompson,et al.  Modeling the potential role of inactivated poliovirus vaccine to manage the risks of oral poliovirus vaccine cessation. , 2014, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[43]  K. Thompson,et al.  The differential impact of oral poliovirus vaccine formulation choices on serotype-specific population immunity to poliovirus transmission , 2015, BMC Infectious Diseases.

[44]  Javier Martin,et al.  Twenty-Eight Years of Poliovirus Replication in an Immunodeficient Individual: Impact on the Global Polio Eradication Initiative , 2015, PLoS pathogens.

[45]  N. Arinaminpathy,et al.  Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints , 2008, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[46]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  Global Surveillance and the Value of Information: The Case of the Global Polio Laboratory Network , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[47]  Kimberly M. Thompson,et al.  Polio Eradicators Use Integrated Analytical Models to Make Better Decisions , 2015, Interfaces.

[48]  A. Hinman,et al.  The case for global eradication of poliomyelitis. , 1987, Bulletin of the World Health Organization.

[49]  M. Pallansch,et al.  Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Evolution and Insights Relevant to Modeling the Risks of Circulating Vaccine‐Derived Polioviruses (cVDPVs) , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[50]  Hazhir Rahmandad,et al.  Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[51]  M. Pallansch,et al.  Modeling options to manage type 1 wild poliovirus imported into Israel in 2013. , 2015, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[52]  R. D. Tebbens,et al.  Modeling Population Immunity to Support Efforts to End the Transmission of Live Polioviruses , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[53]  R. Anderson,et al.  Modeling the impact and cost‐effectiveness of HIV prevention efforts , 1994, AIDS.

[54]  R. D. Tebbens,et al.  Current polio global eradication and control policy options: perspectives from modeling and prerequisites for oral poliovirus vaccine cessation , 2012, Expert review of vaccines.

[55]  Frank Fenner,et al.  Is Polio Eradication Realistic? , 2006, Science.

[56]  K. Thompson,et al.  Poliovirus vaccination during the endgame: insights from integrated modeling , 2017, Expert review of vaccines.

[57]  M. Pallansch,et al.  Combinations of Quality and Frequency of Immunization Activities to Stop and Prevent Poliovirus Transmission in the High-Risk Area of Northwest Nigeria , 2015, PloS one.

[58]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  Evaluation of Response Scenarios to Potential Polio Outbreaks Using Mathematical Models , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[59]  D. Gillespie.  A General Method for Numerically Simulating the Stochastic Time Evolution of Coupled Chemical Reactions , 1976 .

[60]  Fumie Yokota,et al.  Value of Information Literature Analysis: A Review of Applications in Health Risk Management , 2004, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[61]  R. D. Tebbens,et al.  Trends in the Risk of U.S. Polio Outbreaks and Poliovirus Vaccine Availability for Response , 2012, Public health reports.

[62]  R. D. Tebbens,et al.  Optimal vaccine stockpile design for an eradicated disease: application to polio. , 2010, Vaccine.

[63]  K. Thompson,et al.  Comprehensive screening for immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus: an essential oral poliovirus vaccine cessation risk management strategy , 2016, Epidemiology and Infection.

[64]  D. Bundy,et al.  A population dynamic approach to the cost-effectiveness analysis of mass anthelmintic treatment: effects of treatment frequency on Ascaris infection. , 1993, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

[65]  M. Pallansch,et al.  Modeling the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus excretors and the potential benefits of antiviral drugs , 2015, BMC Infectious Diseases.

[66]  Kimberly M. Thompson,et al.  Priority Shifting and the Dynamics of Managing Eradicable Infectious Diseases , 2009, Manag. Sci..

[67]  K. Lapinleimu.  Elimination of poliomyelitis in Finland. , 1984, Reviews of infectious diseases.

[68]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[69]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  The case for cooperation in managing and maintaining the end of poliomyelitis: stockpile needs and coordinated OPV cessation. , 2008, Medscape journal of medicine.

[70]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  Retrospective Cost‐Effectiveness Analyses for Polio Vaccination in the United States , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[71]  F. Shuaib,et al.  Environmental Isolation of Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus After Interruption of Wild Poliovirus Transmission - Nigeria, 2016. , 2016, MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report.

[72]  S. Gilmour,et al.  Prolonged Excretion of Poliovirus among Individuals with Primary Immunodeficiency Disorder: An Analysis of the World Health Organization Registry , 2017, Front. Immunol..

[73]  R. Anderson,et al.  Targeted hepatitis B vaccination--a cost effective immunisation strategy for the UK? , 1996, Journal of epidemiology and community health.

[74]  Milton C Weinstein,et al.  Expanded screening for HIV in the United States--an analysis of cost-effectiveness. , 2005, The New England journal of medicine.

[75]  K. Thompson,et al.  Framework for Optimal Global Vaccine Stockpile Design for Vaccine‐Preventable Diseases: Application to Measles and Cholera Vaccines as Contrasting Examples , 2016, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[76]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  A dynamic model of poliomyelitis outbreaks: learning from the past to help inform the future. , 2005, American journal of epidemiology.

[77]  Kimberly M Thompson,et al.  Risks of Paralytic Disease Due to Wild or Vaccine‐Derived Poliovirus After Eradication , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[78]  D J Nokes,et al.  Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programmes: a dynamic perspective. , 1999, Statistics in medicine.

[79]  L. Hampton,et al.  Cessation of Trivalent Oral Poliovirus Vaccine and Introduction of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine - Worldwide, 2016. , 2016, MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report.

[80]  R. Sutter,et al.  28 – Poliovirus vaccine—live , 2013 .

[81]  G. Stickle.  OBSERVED AND EXPECTED POLIOMYELITIS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1958-1961. , 1964, American journal of public health and the nation's health.

[82]  O. Diekmann,et al.  On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations , 1990, Journal of mathematical biology.

[83]  Eva K. Lee,et al.  Decision support system for mass dispensing of medications for infectious disease outbreaks and bioterrorist attacks , 2006, Ann. Oper. Res..

[84]  Mirjam Kretzschmar,et al.  Dynamic Transmission Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-5 , 2012, Value in Health.

[85]  M. Pallansch,et al.  Characterization of outbreak response strategies and potential vaccine stockpile needs for the polio endgame , 2016, BMC Infectious Diseases.

[86]  J. P. Davis,et al.  Transmission of imported vaccine-derived poliovirus in an undervaccinated community in Minnesota. , 2009, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[87]  K. Thompson,et al.  Managing population immunity to reduce or eliminate the risks of circulation following the importation of polioviruses. , 2015, Vaccine.

[88]  K. Thompson,et al.  Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of potential non-synchronous cessation , 2016, BMC Infectious Diseases.

[89]  W. Edmunds,et al.  The cost-effectiveness of varicella vaccination in Canada. , 2002, Vaccine.

[90]  M. Pallansch,et al.  The potential impact of expanding target age groups for polio immunization campaigns , 2014, BMC Infectious Diseases.

[91]  P. Minor.  An Introduction to Poliovirus: Pathogenesis, Vaccination, and the Endgame for Global Eradication. , 2016, Methods in molecular biology.

[92]  M. Pallansch,et al.  Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[93]  Dorota Kurowicka,et al.  Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Dynamic Economic Evaluation Model for Vaccination Programs , 2008, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[94]  M. Pallansch,et al.  Expert Review on Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.