A Novel Machine Learning Model for Dose Prediction in Prostate Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy Using Output Initialization and Optimization Priorities

Treatment planning for prostate volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) can take 5–30 min per plan to optimize and calculate, limiting the number of plan options that can be explored before the final plan decision. Inspired by the speed and accuracy of modern machine learning models, such as residual networks, we hypothesized that it was possible to use a machine learning model to bypass the time-intensive dose optimization and dose calculation steps, arriving directly at an estimate of the resulting dose distribution for use in multi-criteria optimization (MCO). In this study, we present a novel machine learning model for predicting the dose distribution for a given patient with a given set of optimization priorities. Our model innovates upon the existing machine learning techniques by utilizing optimization priorities and our understanding of dose map shapes to initialize the dose distribution before dose refinement via a voxel-wise residual network. Each block of the residual network individually updates the initialized dose map before passing to the next block. Our model also utilizes contiguous and atrous patch sampling to effectively increase the receptive fields of each layer in the residual network, decreasing its number of layers, increasing model prediction and training speed, and discouraging overfitting without compromising on the accuracy. For analysis, 100 prostate VMAT cases were used to train and test the model. The model was evaluated by the training and testing errors produced by 50 iterations of 10-fold cross-validation, with 100 cases randomly shuffled into the subsets at each iteration. The error of the model is modest for this data, with average dose map root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 2.38 ± 0.47% of prescription dose overall patients and all optimization priority combinations in the patient testing sets. The model was also evaluated at iteratively smaller training set sizes, suggesting that the model requires between 60 and 90 patients for optimal performance. This model may be used for quickly estimating the Pareto set of feasible dose objectives, which may directly accelerate the treatment planning process and indirectly improve final plan quality by allowing more time for plan refinement.