K. Thonicke1,2,3,*, A. Spessa1,4, I. C. Prentice1,5,6,7, S. P. Harrison2,6, L. Dong5, and C. Carmona-Moreno8 1formerly Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knoll-Strase 10, Jena, 07701, Germany 2School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK 3Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia 4Grantham Institute for Climate Change, and Division of Biology, Imperial College, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK 5Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e.V., Telegraphenberg A31, Potsdam, 14473, Germany 6National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences (NCAS), NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK 7QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queen’s Road, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK 8Global Vegetation Monitoring Unit, Joint Research Centre Ispra, Ispra, Italy *now at: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e.V., Telegraphenberg A31, Potsdam, 14473, Germany