IMPLEMENT OF PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COST SIMULATION ALGORITHM BASED ON SEQUENCE OPERATION THEORY

A detailed calculation procedure of probabilistic production cost simulation (PPCS) is proposed in this paper. The main idea of this approach is that the process of production simulation is treated as supply-demand matching. This process can be performed under both load duration curve and chronolo-gical curve. Finally, some reliability and economic indices for each individual resource and demand can be calculated based on the theory of expected value of probabilistic sequences. Moreover, some well known conclusions which are got by traditional PPCS can be easily verified by the new approach in this paper. When dealing with traditional PPCS problems, such as IEEE Reliability Test System, the numeric example shows that the result of our approach is same as that of traditional one. However, the new method can meet the new challenge of production cost simulation in IRP or under deregulation environment, which can be shown in the results of case study.