A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predicted to experience considerable negative impacts of climate change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment emphasizes that adaptation strategies are essential. Addressing adaptation in the context of small-scale, semi-subsistence agriculture raises special challenges. High data demands including site-specific bio-physical and economic data are an important constraint. This paper applies a new approach to impact assessment, the Tradeoff Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD), which simulates technology adoption and associated economic, environmental and social outcomes in a heterogeneous farm population for a regional impact assessment. The methodology uses the kinds of survey, experimental and modeled data that are typically available in countries where semi-subsistence systems are important, combined with future socio-economic scenarios based on new scenario pathway concepts being developed by the climate change and impact assessment modeling communities. Characteristics of current and future agricultural systems, including land use, output, output price, cost of production, and farm and household size are analyzed and compared for both current and projected future climate (2030), with and without adaptation, and for different socio-economic scenarios. The methodology is applied to two study areas in Kenya. These case studies show the potential of this approach to provide a flexible, generic framework that can use available and modeled data to evaluate climate impact and adaptation strategies under a range of socio-economic scenarios.

[1]  Patricia M. Kristjanson,et al.  Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa , 2006 .

[2]  B. D. S. Salasya,et al.  Crop production and soil nutrient management: an economic analysis of households in western and central Kenya. , 2005 .

[3]  Walter E. Baethgen,et al.  Climate Risk Management for Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change , 2010 .

[4]  David L. Sunding,et al.  The agricultural innovation process: Research and technology adoption in a changing agricultural sector , 1999 .

[5]  John M. Antle,et al.  Can payments for ecosystem services secure the water tower of Tibet , 2008 .

[6]  John M. Antle,et al.  Ex ante assessment of dual-purpose sweet potato in the crop-livestock system of western Kenya: A minimum-data approach , 2008 .

[7]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers. , 2007 .

[8]  Robert J. Hijmans,et al.  The effect of climate change on global potato production , 2003, American Journal of Potato Research.

[9]  S. Long,et al.  FACE-ing the facts: inconsistencies and interdependence among field, chamber and modeling studies of elevated [CO2] impacts on crop yield and food supply. , 2008, The New phytologist.

[10]  Patricia M. Kristjanson,et al.  Geographic Dimensions of Well-Being in Kenya: Where are the Poor? From Districts to Locations (Volume One) , 2003 .

[11]  Frank Ewert,et al.  Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. , 2009, Journal of experimental botany.

[12]  Bill Beck.  Unleashing the potential , 2005 .

[13]  A. J. van der Zijpp,et al.  Dynamics of livestock production systems, drivers of change and prospects for animal genetic resources , 2008 .

[14]  G. Alagarswamy,et al.  Spatial variation of crop yield response to climate change in East Africa , 2009 .

[15]  J. Vlaming,et al.  Assessing sustainability of low-external-input farm management systems with the nutrient monitoring approach: a case study in Kenya , 2001 .

[16]  P. Thornton,et al.  The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: A review of what we know and what we need to know , 2009 .

[17]  Keith D. Shepherd,et al.  System prototyping and impact assessment for sustainable alternatives in mixed farming systems in high potential areas of eastern Africa , 2005 .

[18]  S. J. Beddington,et al.  The Future of Food and Farming , 2001 .

[19]  P. Thornton,et al.  Generating characteristic daily weather data using downscaled climate model data from the IPCC's fourth assessment , 2009 .

[20]  John M. Antle,et al.  Minimum-Data Analysis of Ecosystem Service Supply in Semi-Subsistence Agricultural Systems , 2010 .

[21]  George Frisvold,et al.  Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries , 1998 .

[22]  Tobago.  Population and Housing Census. , 2011 .

[23]  John M. Antle,et al.  Spatial heterogeneity and adoption of soil conservation investments: integrated assessment of slow formation terraces in the andes , 2005 .

[24]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100). , 2004 .

[25]  Francis N. Gichuki,et al.  More People, Less Erosion: Environmental Recovery in Kenya , 1995 .

[26]  Seth C. Murray,et al.  Position Statement on Crop Adaptation to Climate Change. , 2011 .

[27]  K. L. Blaxter,et al.  The energy metabolism of ruminants. , 1962 .

[28]  Roberto O. Valdivia,et al.  Modelling the Supply of Ecosystem Services from Agriculture: A Minimum-Data Approach , 2006 .

[29]  G. Alagarswamy,et al.  Adapting to climate change: Agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa , 2010 .

[30]  Ingo Kirchner,et al.  ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM , 1996 .

[31]  A. Bovell-Benjamin,et al.  Sweet potato: a review of its past, present, and future role in human nutrition. , 2007, Advances in food and nutrition research.

[32]  B. Lemaga,et al.  Unleashing the potential of sweetpotato in Sub-Saharan Africa Current challenges and way forward , 2009 .

[33]  J. Antle,et al.  Parsimonious Multi‐Dimensional Impact Assessment , 2011 .

[34]  Philip K. Thornton,et al.  Systems dynamics and the spatial distribution of methane emissions from African domestic ruminants to 2030 , 2008 .

[35]  B. Shiferaw,et al.  Saharan Africa : An essential first step in adapting to future climate change ? , 2008 .

[36]  John M. Antle,et al.  Predicting the Supply of Ecosystem Services from Agriculture , 2006 .

[37]  David B. Lobell,et al.  Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation , 2009 .

[38]  H. van Keulen,et al.  Attaining Sustainable Farm Management Systems in Semi-Arid Areas in Kenya: Few Technical Options, Many Policy Challenges , 2005 .

[39]  C. Sere,et al.  World livestock production systems. Current status, issues and trends , 1995 .

[40]  Gerard B. M. Heuvelink,et al.  Small scale digital soil mapping in Southeastern Kenya , 2008 .

[41]  T. Wilbanks,et al.  Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[42]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability , 2001 .

[43]  With contributions from , 2007 .

[44]  Xiaoshi Xing,et al.  Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) , 2004 .

[45]  Bruno Lanvin.  Unleashing the Potential of E-Strategies , 2005 .

[46]  Rattan Lal,et al.  Enhancing eco-efficiency in agro-ecosystems through soil carbon sequestration. , 2010 .

[47]  B. Hoskins,et al.  Introduction: food crops in a changing climate , 2005, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[48]  John M. Antle,et al.  Agricultural carbon sequestration, poverty, and sustainability , 2008, Environment and Development Economics.

[49]  David R. Lee,et al.  Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation , 2009 .

[50]  D. D. Onduru,et al.  Exploring new pathways for innovative soil fertility management in Kenya , 2001 .

[51]  M. McHugh,et al.  Multi‐model trends in East African rainfall associated with increased CO2 , 2005 .

[52]  John M. Antle,et al.  Representative agricultural pathways and scenarios: a trans-disciplinary approach to agricultural model inter-comparison, improvement and climate impact assessment , 2013 .

[53]  James W. Jones,et al.  The DSSAT cropping system model , 2003 .

[54]  R. Mendelsohn,et al.  Crop Selection: Adapting to Climage Change in Africa , 2007 .

[55]  P. Thornton,et al.  Global livestock production systems. , 2011 .

[56]  K. Shepherd,et al.  An ecological and economic analysis of phosphorus replenishment for Vihiga Division, western Kenya. , 2000 .

[57]  Keith D. Shepherd,et al.  Bio-economic evaluation of farmers' perceptions of viable farms in western Kenya , 2006 .

[58]  W. Adger,et al.  Adaptation to climate change in the developing world , 2003 .

[59]  Lieven Claessens,et al.  Exploring the impacts of field interactions on an integrated assessment of terraced crop systems in the Peruvian Andes , 2010 .

[60]  James W. Jones,et al.  The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies , 2013 .

[61]  Simon N. Nguluu,et al.  Nutrient balances at farm level in Machakos (Kenya), using a participatory nutrient monitoring (NUTMON)approach , 2005 .

[62]  Wilfred Mwangi,et al.  An assessment of adoption of seed and fertilizer packages and the role of credit in smallholder maize production in western Kenya , 1999 .

[63]  Philip K. Thornton,et al.  The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055 , 2003 .

[64]  M. Schlesinger,et al.  Country-Specific Market Impacts of Climate Change , 2000 .

[65]  Jetse J. Stoorvogel,et al.  Fuzzy Classification for Farm Household Characterization , 2010 .