GIS-Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping for Land Use Planning and Risk Assessment

Landslide susceptibility mapping is essential for a suitable land use managing and risk assessment. In this work a GIS-based approach has been proposed to map landslide susceptibility in the Portofino promontory, a Mediterranean area that is periodically hit by intense rain events that induce often shallow landslides. Based on over 110 years landslides inventory and experts’ judgements, a semi-quantitative analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method has been applied to assess the role of nine landslide conditioning factors, which include both natural and anthropogenic elements. A separated subset of landslide data has been used to validate the map. Our findings reveal that areas where possible future landslides may occur are larger than those identified in the actual official map adopted in land use and risk management. The way the new map has been compiled seems more oriented towards the possible future landslide scenario, rather than weighting with higher importance the existing landslides as in the current model. The paper provides a useful decision support tool to implement risk mitigation strategies and to better apply land use planning. Allowing to modify factors in order to local features, the proposed methodology may be adopted in different conditions or geographical context featured by rainfall induced landslide risk.

[1]  Fausto Guzzetti,et al.  The AVI project: A bibliographical and archive inventory of landslides and floods in Italy , 1994 .

[2]  P. Aleotti,et al.  Landslide hazard assessment: summary review and new perspectives , 1999 .

[3]  Jordi Corominas,et al.  Landslide hazard and risk zoning for urban planning and development , 2005 .

[4]  Paul Heersink,et al.  World Atlas of Natural Hazards , 2005, Cartogr. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Geovisualization.

[5]  M. Cavalli,et al.  The role of human activities on sediment connectivity of shallow landslides , 2018 .

[6]  Xin-sheng Wei,et al.  Landslide susceptibility assessment using the certainty factor and analytic hierarchy process , 2017, Journal of Mountain Science.

[7]  D. Montgomery,et al.  A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding , 1994 .

[8]  Thomas Glade,et al.  Landslide occurrence as a response to land use change: a review of evidence from New Zealand , 2003 .

[9]  C. Gokceoğlu,et al.  Landslide susceptibility mapping of the slopes in the residual soils of the Mengen region (Turkey) by deterministic stability analyses and image processing techniques , 1996 .

[10]  Federico Preti,et al.  Terraced Landscapes and Hydrogeological Risk. Effects of Land Abandonment in Cinque Terre (Italy) during Severe Rainfall Events , 2019, Sustainability.

[11]  Anna Roccati,et al.  Applied geomorphological map of the Portofino Municipal Territory (Italy) , 2008 .

[12]  S. Leroueil,et al.  The Varnes classification of landslide types, an update , 2014, Landslides.

[13]  F. Luino,et al.  Intrinsic Environmental Vulnerability as Shallow Landslide Susceptibility in Environmental Impact Assessment , 2019, Sustainability.

[14]  A. Yalçın.  GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using analytical hierarchy process and bivariate statistics in Ardesen (Turkey): Comparisons of results and confirmations , 2008 .

[15]  C. E. SHANNON,et al.  A mathematical theory of communication , 1948, MOCO.

[16]  Marina Bernardi,et al.  High-Resolution Lightning Detection and Possible Relationship with Rainfall Events over the Central Mediterranean Area , 2019, Remote. Sens..

[17]  O. Petrucci,et al.  Occurrence of landslide events and the role of climate in the twentieth century in Calabria, southern Italy , 2010 .

[18]  C. Anagnostopoulou,et al.  Cyclones in the Mediterranean region: present and future climate scenarios derived from a general circulation model (HadAM3P) , 2006 .

[19]  Andrea G. Fabbri,et al.  Validation of Spatial Prediction Models for Landslide Hazard Mapping , 2003 .

[20]  Andrea Ciampalini,et al.  Heavy Rainfall Triggering Shallow Landslides: A Susceptibility Assessment by a GIS-Approach in a Ligurian Apennine Catchment (Italy) , 2019, Water.

[21]  Federica Lucà,et al.  Comparison of GIS-based gullying susceptibility mapping using bivariate and multivariate statistics: Northern Calabria, South Italy , 2011 .

[22]  P. Reichenbach,et al.  Combined landslide inventory and susceptibility assessment based on different mapping units: an example from the Flemish Ardennes, Belgium , 2009 .

[23]  J. Remondo,et al.  Land Management Versus Natural Factors in Land Instability: Some Examples in Northern Spain , 2013, Environmental Management.

[24]  D. Giordan,et al.  Shallow landslide susceptibility, Rupinaro catchment, Liguria (northwestern Italy) , 2019, Journal of Maps.

[25]  P. Brandolini,et al.  Geomorphological hazards and monitoring activity along the western rocky coast of the Portofino Promontory (Italy) , 2007 .

[26]  Jürgen Pilz,et al.  The human cost of global warming: Deadly landslides and their triggers (1995-2014). , 2019, The Science of the total environment.

[27]  Zhihao Xu,et al.  Novel Entropy and Rotation Forest-Based Credal Decision Tree Classifier for Landslide Susceptibility Modeling , 2019, Entropy.

[28]  A. Bregt,et al.  Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use change models , 2011 .

[29]  A. Santo,et al.  Debris slides rapid earth flows in the carbonate massifs of the Campania region (Southern Italy): morphological and morphometric data for evaluating triggering susceptibility , 2005 .

[30]  S. Pascale,et al.  Evaluation of prediction capability of the artificial neural networks for mapping landslide susceptibility in the Turbolo River catchment (northern Calabria, Italy) , 2014 .

[31]  F. M. Elter,et al.  STRUCTURAL FABRIC OF THE ANTOLA UNIT (RIVIERA DI LEVANTE, ITALY) AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ITS ALPINE VERSUS APENNINE ORIGIN , 2001 .

[32]  Jorge Pedro Galve,et al.  Assessment of shallow landslide risk mitigation measures based on land use planning through probabilistic modelling , 2015, Landslides.

[33]  T. L. Saaty.  A Scaling Method for Priorities in Hierarchical Structures , 1977 .

[34]  Konstantinos G. Nikolakopoulos,et al.  Developing a landslide susceptibility map based on remote sensing, fuzzy logic and expert knowledge of the Island of Lefkada, Greece , 2018, Environmental Earth Sciences.

[35]  Klaus D. Goepel,et al.  Implementing the Analytic Hierarchy Process as a Standard Method for Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Corporate Enterprises – a New AHP Excel Template with Multiple Inputs , 2013 .

[36]  R. Soeters,et al.  Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment , 2003 .

[37]  J. N. Hutchinson,et al.  A review of the classification of landslides of the flow type , 2001 .

[38]  B. Pradhan,et al.  Application of fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to landslide susceptibility mapping at Haraz watershed, Iran , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[39]  G. Paliaga,et al.  Geoheritage map of the Portofino Natural Park (Italy) , 2018 .

[40]  Yalin Lei,et al.  The influence of land urbanization on landslides: An empirical estimation based on Chinese provincial panel data. , 2017, The Science of the total environment.

[41]  D. Giordan,et al.  Relationship between man-made environment and slope stability: the case of 2014 rainfall events in the terraced landscape of the Liguria region (northwestern Italy) , 2017 .

[42]  Nunzio Romano,et al.  Terraced landscapes: From an old best practice to a potential hazard for soil degradation due to land abandonment , 2014 .

[43]  D. Alexander.  On the causes of landslides: Human activities, perception, and natural processes , 1992 .

[44]  L. Ayalew,et al.  Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS-based weighted linear combination, the case in Tsugawa area of Agano River, Niigata Prefecture, Japan , 2004 .

[45]  P. Tarolli,et al.  Recognition of surface flow processes influenced by roads and trails in mountain areas using high-resolution topography , 2013 .

[46]  R. Soeters,et al.  Landslide hazard and risk zonation—why is it still so difficult? , 2006 .

[47]  L. Jost.  Partitioning diversity into independent alpha and beta components. , 2007, Ecology.

[48]  Marco Firpo,et al.  Environmental climatic maps of Liguria (Italy) , 2012 .

[49]  D. Petley,et al.  Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016 , 2018, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

[50]  Saro Lee,et al.  Statistical analysis of landslide susceptibility at Yongin, Korea , 2001 .

[51]  M. Komac.  A landslide susceptibility model using the Analytical Hierarchy Process method and multivariate statistics in perialpine Slovenia , 2006 .

[52]  Saro Lee,et al.  Determination and application of the weights for landslide susceptibility mapping using an artificial neural network , 2004 .

[53]  W. Z. Savage,et al.  Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land-use planning , 2008 .

[54]  F. Luino,et al.  Implementation of Nature-Based Solutions for Hydro-Meteorological Risk Reduction in Small Mediterranean Catchments: The Case of Portofino Natural Regional Park, Italy , 2020 .

[55]  S. Martino,et al.  Influence of man-made cuts on the stability of pyroclastic covers (Campania, southern Italy): a numerical modelling approach , 2003 .

[56]  Biswajeet Pradhan,et al.  Approaches for delineating landslide hazard areas using different training sites in an advanced artificial neural network model , 2010, Geo spatial Inf. Sci..

[57]  A. Brenning.  Spatial prediction models for landslide hazards: review, comparison and evaluation , 2005 .

[58]  F. Luino,et al.  A spatial multicriteria prioritizing approach for geo-hydrological risk mitigation planning in small and densely urbanized Mediterranean basins , 2019, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

[59]  J. Zêzere,et al.  The role of the lithological setting on the landslide pattern and distribution , 2015 .

[60]  F. Faccini,et al.  Natural hazards in San Fruttuoso of Camogli (Portofino Park, Italy): a case study of a debris flow in a coastal environment , 2009 .

[61]  L. Pandolfi,et al.  Polyorogenic deformation history recognized at very shallow structural levels: the case of the Antola Unit (Northern Apennine, Italy) , 2006 .

[62]  Jie Dou,et al.  Evaluating GIS-Based Multiple Statistical Models and Data Mining for Earthquake and Rainfall-Induced Landslide Susceptibility Using the LiDAR DEM , 2019, Remote. Sens..

[63]  Roberta Pellicani,et al.  GIS-based predictive models for regional-scale landslide susceptibility assessment and risk mapping along road corridors , 2017 .

[64]  Ning Lu,et al.  Infinite slope stability under steady unsaturated seepage conditions , 2008 .

[65]  T. Lasanta,et al.  Marginal Lands and Erosion in Terraced Fields in the Mediterranean Mountains , 2001 .

[66]  A. Cevasco,et al.  Response of Terraced Slopes to a Very Intense Rainfall Event and Relationships with Land Abandonment: A Case Study from Cinque Terre (Italy) , 2018 .

[67]  P. Reichenbach,et al.  A review of statistically-based landslide susceptibility models , 2018 .

[68]  C. F. Lee,et al.  Assessment of landslide susceptibility on the natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong , 2001 .

[69]  J A Swets,et al.  Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. , 1988, Science.

[70]  María Teresa Lamata,et al.  Consistency in the Analytic Hierarchy Process: a New Approach , 2006, Int. J. Uncertain. Fuzziness Knowl. Based Syst..

[71]  F. Luino,et al.  Terraced Landscapes on Portofino Promontory (Italy): Identification, Geo-Hydrological Hazard and Management , 2020, Water.

[72]  Roberto Giannecchini,et al.  The influence of the geological and geomorphological settings on shallow landslides. An example in a temperate climate environment: the June 19, 1996 event in northwestern Tuscany (Italy) , 2004 .

[73]  Landslide susceptibility assessment by EPBM (Expert Physically Based Model): strategy of calibration in complex environment , 2017 .

[74]  Enrico Miccadei,et al.  Landslide Susceptibility Assessment of Mauritius Island (Indian Ocean) , 2019, Geosciences.

[75]  S. Reis,et al.  A GIS-based comparative study of frequency ratio, analytical hierarchy process, bivariate statistics , 2011 .

[76]  Fuan Tsai,et al.  Improving GIS-Based Landslide Susceptibility Assessments with Multi-temporal Remote Sensing and Machine Learning , 2019, Sensors.

[77]  F. Luino,et al.  Rainfall Threshold for Shallow Landslides Initiation and Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall Trends in a Mediterranean Area , 2020, Atmosphere.

[78]  Christophe Bonnard,et al.  Landslide risk management in Switzerland , 2005 .

[79]  A. Hewitt,et al.  Soils and their relationship to aspect and vegetation history in the eastern Southern Alps, Canterbury High Country, South Island, New Zealand , 2008 .

[80]  J. Malet,et al.  Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk , 2013, Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment.

[81]  A. Agnelli,et al.  Properties, best management practices and conservation of terraced soils in Southern Europe (from Mediterranean areas to the Alps): A review , 2012 .

[82]  P. Reichenbach,et al.  Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy , 1999 .

[83]  C. D. Gamper,et al.  A conceptual approach to the use of Cost Benefit and Multi Criteria Analysis in natural hazard management , 2006 .

[84]  C. Baeza,et al.  Statistical and spatial analysis of landslide susceptibility maps with different classification systems , 2016, Environmental Earth Sciences.

[85]  Fuchu Dai,et al.  Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview , 2002 .

[86]  D. Petley.  Global patterns of loss of life from landslides , 2012 .

[87]  Hans Visser,et al.  The Map Comparison Kit , 2006, Environ. Model. Softw..

[88]  Simona Fratianni,et al.  Increased flash flooding in Genoa Metropolitan Area: a combination of climate changes and soil consumption? , 2018, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics.

[89]  P. Brandolini,et al.  Geomorphological hazard and tourist vulnerability along Portofino Park trails (Italy) , 2006 .

[90]  M. Pelfini,et al.  A complex landslide along the Eastern Liguria rocky coast (Italy) , 2013 .

[91]  S. Panchal,et al.  Application of analytic hierarchy process in landslide susceptibility mapping at regional scale in GIS environment , 2020, Journal of Statistics and Management Systems.

[92]  P. Frattini,et al.  Comparing models of debris-flow susceptibility in the alpine environment , 2008 .

[93]  Andrea Cevasco,et al.  The influences of geological and land use settings on shallow landslides triggered by an intense rainfall event in a coastal terraced environment , 2014, Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment.

[94]  F. Faccini,et al.  Geomorphic hazards and intense rainfall: the case study of the Recco Stream catchment (Eastern Liguria, Italy) , 2012 .