Machine learning ensemble modelling to classify caesarean section and vaginal delivery types using Cardiotocography traces

Human visual inspection of Cardiotocography traces is used to monitor the foetus during labour and avoid neonatal mortality and morbidity. The problem, however, is that visual interpretation of Cardiotocography traces is subject to high inter and intra observer variability. Incorrect decisions, caused by miss-interpretation, can lead to adverse perinatal outcomes and in severe cases death. This study presents a review of human Cardiotocography trace interpretation and argues that machine learning, used as a decision support system by obstetricians and midwives, may provide an objective measure alongside normal practices. This will help to increase predictive capacity and reduce negative outcomes. A robust methodology is presented for feature set engineering using an open database comprising 552 intrapartum recordings. State-of-the-art in signal processing techniques is applied to raw Cardiotocography foetal heart rate traces to extract 13 features. Those with low discriminative capacity are removed using Recursive Feature Elimination. The dataset is imbalanced with significant differences between the prior probabilities of both normal deliveries and those delivered by caesarean section. This issue is addressed by oversampling the training instances using a synthetic minority oversampling technique to provide a balanced class distribution. Several simple, yet powerful, machine-learning algorithms are trained, using the feature set, and their performance is evaluated with real test data. The results are encouraging using an ensemble classifier comprising Fishers Linear Discriminant Analysis, Random Forest and Support Vector Machine classifiers, with 87% (95% Confidence Interval: 86%, 88%) for Sensitivity, 90% (95% CI: 89%, 91%) for Specificity, and 96% (95% CI: 96%, 97%) for the Area Under the Curve, with a 9% (95% CI: 9%, 10%) Mean Square Error.