Stochastic Petri-net models to predict the degradation of ceramic claddings

ABSTRACT A stochastic Petri-net formalism is proposed to predict the degradation of ceramic claddings over time in order to understand how different environmental exposure conditions contribute to the overall degradation of these claddings. For that purpose, the degradation condition of 195 ceramic claddings located in Lisbon, Portugal, is evaluated through in situ visual inspections. In the first part of the study, a stochastic deterioration Petri-net model is proposed for the entire sample. In the second part, the original sample is divided according to the environmental exposure conditions, evaluating the influence of these conditions on the deterioration process of ceramic claddings. Four main degradation agents are analyzed: exposure to moisture; distance from the sea; orientation; and wind–rain action. The results reveal that Petri nets can accurately describe the deterioration process of ceramic claddings, providing relevant information regarding the performance of these claddings through their life cycle and according to the environmental exposure conditions to which they are subject. These results are extremely relevant for different practitioners: the approach allows the adoption of more sustainable and durable solutions at the design stage, as well as improving the durability of the ceramic claddings by performing optimized maintenance plans and strategies.

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