Perspectives on the Evolution of Simulation

Simulation is introduced in terms of its different forms and uses, but the focus on discrete event modeling for systems analysis is dominant as it has been during the evolution of the technique within operations research and the management sciences. This evolutionary trace of over almost fifty years notes the importance of bidirectional influences with computer science, probability and statistics, and mathematics. No area within the scope of operations research and the management sciences has been affected more by advances in computing technology than simulation. This assertion is affirmed in the review of progress in those technical areas that collectively define the art and science of simulation. A holistic description of the field must include the roles of professional societies, conferences and symposia, and publications. The closing citation of a scientific value judgment from over 30 years in the past hopefully provides a stimulus for contemplating what lies ahead in the next 50 years.

[1]  Bernard P. Zeigler,et al.  Toward a Formal Theory of Modeling and Simulation: Structure Preserving Morphisms , 1972, JACM.

[2]  Bernard P. Zeigler,et al.  Theory of Modelling and Simulation , 1979, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[3]  Nabil R. Adam,et al.  Current Issues in Computer Simulation , 1979 .

[4]  B. Efron.  The jackknife, the bootstrap, and other resampling plans , 1987 .

[5]  Austin C. Hoggatt.  Symposium on simulation models , 1963 .

[6]  Robert G. Sargent,et al.  Control flow graphs as a representation language , 1994, Proceedings of Winter Simulation Conference.

[7]  Christos Alexopoulos,et al.  Output analysis: output data analysis for simulations , 2000, WSC '01.

[8]  Stephen E. Chick.  Bayesian methods: bayesian methods for simulation , 2000, WSC '00.

[9]  A. Alan B. Pritsker,et al.  Gasp iv simulation language , 1974 .

[10]  F. David,et al.  Statistical Techniques in Simulation: Part I , 1975 .

[11]  Joseph M. Sussman,et al.  The winter simulation conference: perspectives of the founding fathers , 1992, WSC '92.

[12]  H. Rex Hartson,et al.  Human-computer interaction: Interdisciplinary roots and trends , 1998, J. Syst. Softw..

[13]  Robert G. Sargent,et al.  Verification and validation of simulation models , 1998, 1998 Winter Simulation Conference. Proceedings (Cat. No.98CH36274).

[14]  David Jefferson,et al.  Fast Concurrent Simulation Using the Time Warp Mechanism. Part I. Local Control. , 1982 .

[15]  Lynda Chin,et al.  Guest Editor , 2003, Oncogene.

[16]  H. Markowitz,et al.  THE SIMSCRIPT II PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE , 1970 .

[17]  Stephen E. Chick,et al.  Bayesian methods for simulation , 2000, 2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165).

[18]  D.G. Fritz,et al.  An overview of hierarchical control flow graph models , 1995, Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings, 1995..

[19]  Robert M. O'Keefe,et al.  Visual interactive simulation: A methodological perspective , 1994, Ann. Oper. Res..

[20]  Thomas H. Naylor,et al.  Verification of Computer Simulation Models , 1967 .

[21]  Osman Balci,et al.  A methodology for cost-risk analysis in the statistical validation of simulation models , 1981, CACM.

[22]  Eric G. Manning,et al.  Distributed Simulation Using a Network of Processors , 1979, Comput. Networks.

[23]  K. D. Tocher,et al.  The art of simulation , 1967 .

[24]  S. T. Buckland,et al.  An Introduction to the Bootstrap. , 1994 .

[25]  A. T. Clementson.  Digital Simulation in Operational Research , 1967 .

[26]  Thomas J. Bergin,et al.  History of programming languages---II , 1996 .

[27]  George W Evans,et al.  SIMULATION USING DIGITAL COMPUTERS. , 1967 .

[28]  J. George Shanthikumar,et al.  A Unifying View of Hybrid Simulation/Analytic Models and Modeling , 1983, Oper. Res..

[29]  K. Mani Chandy,et al.  Distributed Simulation: A Case Study in Design and Verification of Distributed Programs , 1979, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.

[30]  George H. Mealy,et al.  Another look at data , 1967, AFIPS '67 (Fall).

[31]  Richard W. Conway,et al.  Some Tactical Problems in Digital Simulation , 1963 .

[32]  L. Neale Cosby,et al.  SIMNET: an insider's perspective , 1995, Defense + Commercial Sensing.

[33]  Pierre L'Ecuyer,et al.  Software for uniform random number generation: distinguishing the good and the bad , 2001, Proceeding of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference (Cat. No.01CH37304).

[34]  Lee W. Schruben,et al.  Simulation modeling with event graphs , 1983, CACM.

[35]  Joseph M. Sussman,et al.  The winter simulation conference: celebrating twenty-five years of progress , 1992, WSC '92.

[36]  Thomas Herbert Naylor.  Computer Simulation Techniques , 1966 .

[37]  Richard E. Nance.  A history of discrete event simulation programming languages , 1996 .

[38]  Robert G. Sargent.  Event Graph Modelling for Simulation with an Application to Flexible Manufacturing Systems , 1988 .

[39]  BalciOsman,et al.  A methodology for cost-risk analysis in the statistical validation of simulation models , 1981 .

[40]  Robert G. Sargent,et al.  A Formal Development of Event Graphs as an Aid to Structured and Efficient Simulation Programs , 1989, INFORMS J. Comput..

[41]  George Shapiro,et al.  Prospects for simulation and simulators of dynamic systems , 1967 .

[42]  L. B. Rall.  Current Issues in Computer Simulation. EDITED BY NABIL R. ADAM AND ALI DOGRAMACI. Academic , 1979 .

[43]  John M. Chambers.  Random Number Generators , 1967 .

[44]  C. P. Bonini.  Simulation of information and decision systems in the firm , 1963 .

[45]  Randal E. Bryant,et al.  SIMULATION OF PACKET COMMUNICATION ARCHITECTURE COMPUTER SYSTEMS , 1977 .

[46]  Richard E. Nance,et al.  The time and state relationships in simulation modeling , 1981, CACM.

[47]  J. Forrester.  Industrial Dynamics , 1997 .

[48]  Robert G. Sargent.  Validation of simulation models , 1979, WSC '79.

[49]  Randall L. Schultz,et al.  Simulation in social and administrative science : overviews and case-examples , 1972 .

[50]  Philip J. Kiviat.  DIGITAL COMPUTER SIMULATION: COMPUTER PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES , 1969 .

[51]  J. Hammersley,et al.  Monte Carlo Methods , 1965 .

[52]  T. E. Hull,et al.  Random Number Generators , 1962 .

[53]  Averill M. Law,et al.  Simulation Modeling and Analysis , 1982 .

[54]  E. Feigenbaum,et al.  Computers and Thought , 1963 .

[55]  Keebom Kang,et al.  An Investigation of Finite-Sample Behavior of Confidence Interval Estimators , 1992, Oper. Res..

[56]  Richard E. Nance,et al.  A history of discrete event simulation programming languages , 1993, HOPL-II.

[57]  David Goldsman,et al.  Alan Pritsker's multifaceted career: theory, practice, education, entrepreneurship, and service , 2001 .

[58]  Richard K. Nance.  On Time Flow Mechanisms for Discrete System Simulation , 1971 .

[59]  A. Tamhane.  Design and Analysis of Experiments for Statistical Selection, Screening, and Multiple Comparisons , 1995 .

[60]  Michael R. Lackner.  Toward a general simulation capability , 1962, AIEE-IRE '62 (Spring).

[61]  Russell R. Barton,et al.  Simulation metamodels , 1998, 1998 Winter Simulation Conference. Proceedings (Cat. No.98CH36274).

[62]  Donald E. Knuth,et al.  The art of computer programming. Vol.2: Seminumerical algorithms , 1981 .

[63]  Donald Ervin Knuth,et al.  The Art of Computer Programming , 1968 .

[64]  William M. McCormack,et al.  Analysis of future event set algorithms for discrete event simulation , 1981, CACM.

[65]  W. Reiher.  Hammersley, J. M., D. C. Handscomb: Monte Carlo Methods. Methuen & Co., London, and John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1964. VII + 178 S., Preis: 25 s , 1966 .

[66]  Richard E. Nance.  A tutorial view of simulation model development , 1984, SIML.

[67]  François E. Cellier,et al.  Progress in Modelling and Simulation , 1982 .

[68]  P. Glynn.  A GSMP formalism for discrete event systems , 1989, Proc. IEEE.

[69]  Richard E. Nance.  Model Representation in Discrete Event Simulation: I. Prospects for Developing Documentation Standards , 1979 .

[70]  Andrew F. Seila,et al.  Output analysis for simulation , 1991, 1991 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings..

[71]  Alan G. Merten,et al.  Computer simulation experiments with models of economic systems , 1971 .

[72]  P. Haas.  On simulation output analysis for generalized semi-markov processes , 1999 .

[73]  A. F. Seila,et al.  Output analysis for simulations , 2000, 2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165).

[74]  François E. Cellier,et al.  Progress in Modeling and Simulation , 1982 .

[75]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  A methodology for fitting and validating metamodels in simulation , 2000, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[76]  L. Devroye.  Non-Uniform Random Variate Generation , 1986 .

[77]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  Statistical Techniques in Simulation , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics.

[78]  Arthur I. Siegel,et al.  Man-machine simulation models : psychosocial and performance interaction , 1969 .