Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 1: Model description and testing

This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.

[1]  I. Fung,et al.  Observational Contrains on the Global Atmospheric Co2 Budget , 1990, Science.

[2]  A. Thompson,et al.  Sensitivity of tropospheric oxidants to global chemical and climate change , 1989 .

[3]  M. Khalil,et al.  Theory and development of a one dimensional time dependent radiative convective climate model , 1991 .

[4]  Jan Rotmans,et al.  Image: An Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect , 1990 .

[5]  C. Hall,et al.  Tropical Forests and the Global Carbon Cycle , 1988, Science.

[6]  H. J. van der Woerd,et al.  Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 2: Computed scenarios , 1994 .

[7]  G. Woodwell,et al.  Changes in the Carbon Content of Terrestrial Biota and Soils between 1860 and 1980: A Net Release of CO"2 to the Atmosphere , 1983 .

[8]  Atmospheric Composition Calculations for Evaluation of Climate Scenarios , 1994 .

[9]  J. Olivier,et al.  Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios , 1994 .

[10]  M. Krol.  Uncertainty Analysis for the Computation of Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in IMAGE , 1994 .

[11]  Jan Rotmans,et al.  An integrated model for the assessment of the greenhouse effect: The Dutch approach , 1990 .

[12]  A. Arking,et al.  Climate Studies with a Multi-Layer Energy Balance Model. Part I: Model Description and Sensitivity to the Solar Constant , 1982 .

[13]  A. Bouwman,et al.  Computing land use emissions of greenhouse gases , 1994 .

[14]  N. Myers.  Conversion of tropical moist forests : a report prepared by Norman Myers for the Committee on Research Priorities in Tropical Biology of the National Research Council , 1980 .

[15]  W. Cramer,et al.  A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate , 1992 .

[16]  J. Alcamo,et al.  Simulating changes in global land cover as affected by economic and climatic factors , 1994 .

[17]  J. Goudriaan,et al.  A simulation study for the global carbon cycle, including man's impact on the biosphere , 1984 .

[18]  Syukuro Manabe,et al.  Large-Scale Changes of Soil Wetness Induced by an Increase in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide , 1987 .

[19]  M. Bender,et al.  Tracers in the Sea , 1984 .

[20]  Rik Leemans,et al.  Determining the potential distribution of vegetation, crops and agricultural productivity , 1994 .

[21]  M. Jonas,et al.  An atmosphere-ocean model for integrated assessment of global change , 1994 .

[22]  William J. Randel,et al.  Global atmospheric circulation statistics, 1000-1 mb , 1992 .

[23]  J. Lanly.  Tropical forest resources , 1982 .

[24]  Rik Leemans,et al.  Simulating the carbon flux between the terrestrial environment and the atmosphere , 1994 .

[25]  J. Goudriaan.  Biosphere Structure, Carbon Sequestering Potential and the Atmospheric 14C Carbon Record , 1992 .