An experimental evaluation of a temporal decay in the prediction of performance

Abstract Data were obtained to test the explanatory power of an explanation of the temporal decay in the relationship between predictor batteries and performance criteria assessed at different stages of practice. An experimental group consisting of 67 college students enrolled in a basic flight training course leading to the FAA private pilot's certificate and an equivalent control group of 74 college students interested in aviation served as subjects. An ability battery administered before and after training to all subjects indicated that significantly greater changes occurred in the mean ability scores within the experimental group than within the control group. These results were interpreted as indicating that the temporal decay in the predictive validities of ability batteries may be attributable to changes in the subjects rather than to changes in the “importance” of ability measures as had previously been hypothesized. The implications of these findings for selection and placement programs are discussed.