Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change

Climate change alters the water cycle, potentially affecting the distribution of species. Using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we predicted changes in distribution of the Asian elephant in South Asia due to increasing climatic variability under warming climate and human pressures.

[1]  James L. D. Smith,et al.  Using interviews and biological sign surveys to infer seasonal use of forested and agricultural portions of a human-dominated landscape by Asian elephants in Nepal , 2018 .

[2]  Damien A. Fordham,et al.  How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models , 2018, Global change biology.

[3]  W. Buytaert,et al.  Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin , 2017 .

[4]  Brett R. Scheffers,et al.  Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being , 2017, Science.

[5]  J. Böhner,et al.  Rising Precipitation Extremes across Nepal , 2017 .

[6]  F. Langevelde,et al.  Prolonged drought results in starvation of African elephant (Loxodonta africana) , 2016 .

[7]  Pascal O. Title,et al.  ENVIREM: An expanded set of bioclimatic and topographic variables increases flexibility and improves performance of ecological niche modeling , 2016, bioRxiv.

[8]  J. Cerdeira,et al.  Climate change, species range shifts and dispersal corridors: an evaluation of spatial conservation models , 2016 .

[9]  C. Dhanya,et al.  Changing characteristics of extreme wet and dry spells of Indian monsoon rainfall , 2016 .

[10]  Drew W. Purves,et al.  Evaluating the combined effects of climate and land-use change on tree species distributions , 2015 .

[11]  K. U. Karanth,et al.  Patterns and Determinants of Habitat Occupancy by the Asian Elephant in the Western Ghats of Karnataka, India , 2015, PloS one.

[12]  R. Sukumar,et al.  Distribution, relative abundance, and conservation status of Asian elephants in Karnataka, southern India , 2015 .

[13]  Jawad Ashraf,et al.  Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature indices over South Asia , 2015 .

[14]  C. Jayasankar,et al.  Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability , 2015 .

[15]  Jane Elith,et al.  What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models , 2014 .

[16]  Robert A. Boria,et al.  ENMeval: An R package for conducting spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model complexity for Maxent ecological niche models , 2014 .

[17]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season , 2014 .

[18]  Robert P. Anderson,et al.  Making better Maxent models of species distributions: complexity, overfitting and evaluation , 2014 .

[19]  Gil Bohrer,et al.  Elephant movement closely tracks precipitation-driven vegetation dynamics in a Kenyan forest-savanna landscape , 2014, Movement ecology.

[20]  M. Araújo,et al.  Community‐level vs species‐specific approaches to model selection , 2013 .

[21]  Thorsten Wiegand,et al.  Using individual-based movement models to assess inter-patch connectivity for large carnivores in fragmented landscapes , 2013 .

[22]  Alexandre Courtiol,et al.  Climatic variation and age-specific survival in Asian elephants from Myanmar. , 2013, Ecology.

[23]  Alex S. Kutt,et al.  Focus on poleward shifts in species' distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change , 2013 .

[24]  Bettina M. J. Engelbrecht,et al.  Species distributions in response to individual soil nutrients and seasonal drought across a community of tropical trees , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[25]  Jacob Schewe,et al.  A statistically predictive model for future monsoon failure in India , 2012 .

[26]  S. Vaidyanathan,et al.  Usual Populations, Unusual Individuals: Insights into the Behavior and Management of Asian Elephants in Fragmented Landscapes , 2012, PloS one.

[27]  Vito M. R. Muggeo,et al.  Animal Perception of Seasonal Thresholds: Changes in Elephant Movement in Relation to Rainfall Patterns , 2012, PloS one.

[28]  Jarrett E. K. Byrnes,et al.  A global synthesis reveals biodiversity loss as a major driver of ecosystem change , 2012, Nature.

[29]  E. Biggs,et al.  Assessing the accuracy and applied use of satellite-derived precipitation estimates over Nepal , 2012 .

[30]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[31]  N. Stephenson,et al.  Comment on “Changes in Climatic Water Balance Drive Downhill Shifts in Plant Species’ Optimum Elevations” , 2011, Science.

[32]  R. Hijmans Comment on “Changes in Climatic Water Balance Drive Downhill Shifts in Plant Species’ Optimum Elevations” , 2011, Science.

[33]  Dan L Warren,et al.  Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria. , 2011, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[34]  A. Agrawal,et al.  Biodiversity conservation and livelihoods in human-dominated landscapes: Forest commons in South Asia , 2010 .

[35]  William F. Laurance,et al.  Cryptic destruction of India's native forests , 2010 .

[36]  J. Ragle,et al.  IUCN Red List of Threatened Species , 2010 .

[37]  M. Rajeevan,et al.  Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon , 2010 .

[38]  W. Landman Climate change 2007: the physical science basis , 2010 .

[39]  Antoine Guisan,et al.  Going against the flow: potential mechanisms for unexpected downslope range shifts in a warming climate , 2010 .

[40]  Jeffrey R Dunk,et al.  Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest, USA , 2010 .

[41]  B. Erasmus,et al.  Ensemble models predict Important Bird Areas in southern Africa will become less effective for conserving endemic birds under climate change. , 2009 .

[42]  P. Kareiva,et al.  Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. , 2009, Ecology.

[43]  Mathieu Marmion,et al.  Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling , 2009 .

[44]  Jeremy S. Pal,et al.  Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century , 2009 .

[45]  Nathalie Pettorelli,et al.  Severe drought and calf survival in elephants , 2008, Biology Letters.

[46]  J. L. Parra,et al.  Impact of a Century of Climate Change on Small-Mammal Communities in Yosemite National Park, USA , 2008, Science.

[47]  M. Schaepman,et al.  Proxy global assessment of land degradation , 2008 .

[48]  E. Wikramanayake,et al.  Ranging behavior of the Asian elephant in Sri Lanka , 2008 .

[49]  R. G. Davies,et al.  Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data : a review , 2007 .

[50]  A. Dobson,et al.  Projected Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on the Global Diversity of Birds , 2007, PLoS biology.

[51]  J. Nichols,et al.  Patch-occupancy models indicate human activity as major determinant of forest elephant Loxodonta cyclotis seasonal distribution in an industrial corridor in Gabon , 2007 .

[52]  Omri Allouche,et al.  Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS) , 2006 .

[53]  R. Sukumar A brief review of the status, distribution and biology of wild Asian elephants Elephas maximus , 2006 .

[54]  Robert P. Anderson,et al.  Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions , 2006 .

[55]  J. L. Parra,et al.  Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas , 2005 .

[56]  M. Araújo,et al.  Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change , 2005 .

[57]  David B. Roy,et al.  A northward shift of range margins in British Odonata , 2005 .

[58]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Multimodel Inference , 2004 .

[59]  M. D. Madhusudan,et al.  Recovery of wild large herbivores following livestock decline in a tropical Indian wildlife reserve , 2004 .

[60]  L. Hannah,et al.  Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve‐selection methods , 2004 .

[61]  O. Phillips,et al.  Extinction risk from climate change , 2004, Nature.

[62]  R. Mittermeier,et al.  Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities , 2000, Nature.

[63]  N. Stephenson,et al.  Actual evapotranspiration and deficit: biologically meaningful correlates of vegetation distribution across spatial scales , 1998 .

[64]  John Bell,et al.  A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models , 1997, Environmental Conservation.

[65]  R. Sukumar,et al.  The Asian Elephant: Ecology and Management , 1990 .

[66]  R. Sukumar Ecology of the Asian elephant in southern India. I. Movement and habitat utilization patterns , 1989, Journal of Tropical Ecology.

[67]  M. Rosenzweig Net Primary Productivity of Terrestrial Communities: Prediction from Climatological Data , 1968, The American Naturalist.

[68]  I. Koizumi,et al.  Can Charismatic Megafauna Be Surrogate Species for Biodiversity Conservation? Mechanisms and a Test Using Citizen Data and a Hierarchical Community Model , 2018 .

[69]  Ainong Li,et al.  Land Use/Cover Change and Its Eco-environmental Responses in Nepal: An Overview , 2017 .

[70]  A. Tripathi,et al.  Knowledge and passive adaptation to climate change: An example from Indian farmers , 2017 .

[71]  Jonathan Lenoir,et al.  Climate-related range shifts – a global multidimensional synthesis and new research directions , 2015 .

[72]  D. Bell Forest Restoration Guided by an Umbrella Species Will Measures to Protect the White-backed Woodpecker Benefit Saproxylic Beetles? , 2015 .

[73]  Samuel A. Cushman,et al.  Why Did the Bear Cross the Road? Comparing the Performance of Multiple Resistance Surfaces and Connectivity Modeling Methods , 2014 .

[74]  D. Squires Biodiversity Conservation in Asia: Biodiversity Conservation in Asia , 2014 .

[75]  R Core Team,et al.  R: A language and environment for statistical computing. , 2014 .

[76]  A. Kitoh,et al.  How dependent is climate change projection of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and extreme events on model resolution ? , 2013 .

[77]  Tim Hirsch,et al.  Global biodiversity outlook 3 , 2010 .

[78]  Mark New,et al.  Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. , 2007, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[79]  R. Dube,et al.  Extreme Weather Events over India in the last 100 years , 2005 .

[80]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Understanding AIC and BIC in Model Selection , 2004 .

[81]  A. Desai THE HOME RANGE OF ELEPHANTS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR MANAGEMENT OF THE MUDUMALAI WILDLIFE SANCTUARY TAMIL NADU , 1991 .