Nomogram for predicting the risk of gastroesophageal varices after primary endoscopic prophylaxis for variceal hemorrhage in patients with cirrhosis

Background and aims The aim of this study was to identify predictors of non-high-risk gastroesophageal varices and evaluate the probability of the residual high-risk varices in cirrhosis patients after the primary endoscopic treatment. Patients and methods Medical records of the patients with cirrhosis admitted for primary endoscopic prophylaxis gastroesophageal varices hemorrhage were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into high-risk varices and non-high-risk varices groups according to the endoscopy. A nomogram was developed based on the results of multivariate Cox analyses. Accuracy of this model was validated by the concordance index (Harrell’s c-index) and calibration curve. Results Altogether 117 patients were enrolled between March 2014 and April 2018. The multivariate Cox analyses identified spleen length <140 mm [odds ratio (OR) = 2.715; P = 0.037), small or medium size of esophageal varices (OR = 4.412; P = 0.017), unaccompanied with gastric varices (OR = 7.025; P = 0.003) and frequency of endoscopic variceal ligation ≥one time per 4 months (OR = 3.834; P = 0.034) as independent factors of non-high-risk varices. All significant predictors were incorporated into a nomogram to predict the residual high-risk varices, which showed a notable accuracy with the concordance index (0.833). Conclusion The nomogram-based prediction of residual high-risk varices can be used for risk stratification in cirrhosis patients with gastroesophageal varices.