Developing a Strategic Policy Choice Framework for Technological Innovation: Case of Chinese Pharmaceuticals

.......................................................................................................................... i Dedication ..................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................... iv List of Tables................................................................................................................ xii List of Figures ............................................................................................................... xv List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................. xvii Chapter 1 – Introduction ..................................................................................................1 1.1 Problem Statement ································································································1 1.2 Research Objective and Questions ·········································································3 1.3 Research Methodology ··························································································4 1.4 Research Applications ···························································································8 1.5 Outline of Dissertation ··························································································9 Chapter 2 – Literature Review ....................................................................................... 11 2.1 International Technology Transfer ······································································· 11 2.1.1 Levels of International Technology Transfer ................................................ 12 2.1.2 Technology Transfer and Innovation............................................................ 14 2.1.3 Different Motivations and Interests .............................................................. 17 2.1.4 Implications for Emerging Economies ......................................................... 20 2.2 Innovation Management ······················································································ 23 2.2.1 Innovation as National Competence ............................................................. 23 2.2.2 The Evolution of Innovation Systems .......................................................... 25 vii 2.2.3 Globalization of Innovation Resources......................................................... 30 2.2.4 National Innovation Strategy ....................................................................... 31 2.2.5 Challenges of Innovation Governance in Emerging Economies.................... 35 2.3 Technology Foresight ·························································································· 37 2.3.1 Foresight Initiatives in Developed Countries ................................................ 37 2.3.2 Generations of Technology Foresight .......................................................... 39 2.3.3 Technology Foresight and Innovation .......................................................... 41 2.3.4 Technology Foresight in Emerging Economies ............................................ 43 2.3.5 Common Challenges of Foresight in Emerging Economies .......................... 50 2.4 Technology Policy ······························································································ 52 2.4.1 Technology Policy in Industrialized Countries ............................................. 53 2.4.2 Technology Export Control.......................................................................... 54 2.4.3 Technology Policy in Emerging Economies ................................................. 56 2.4.4 Policy Instruments for Innovation ................................................................ 59 2.4.5 Implications for Priority Setting on Technology Policy ................................ 60 2.5 Technology Development in China ····································································· 61 2.5.1 National Technology Programs in China ...................................................... 62 2.5.2 Landscape of Innovation in China ................................................................ 64 2.5.3 Framework Conditions for Innovation ......................................................... 75 2.5.4 Challenges of Innovation Management in China .......................................... 78 2.5.5 Implications for Technology Policy in China ............................................... 81 2.6 Methodology Review ·························································································· 85 2.6.1 Foresight Methodology ................................................................................ 85 viii 2.6.2 Technology Assessment............................................................................... 89 2.6.3 The Delphi Method ...................................................................................... 94 2.6.4 Multi-criteria Decision Analysis .................................................................. 96 2.7 Gap Analysis ······································································································· 98 2.7.1 Short Summary of Gap Analysis ................................................................ 106 2.8 Research Scope and Boundaries ········································································ 107 Chapter 3 – Research Methodology and Approach ....................................................... 109 3.1 Research Objectives, Goals, and Questions ······················································· 109 3.2 Research Methodology ······················································································ 111 3.3 Research Model ································································································ 113 3.4 Research Framework ························································································· 117 3.5 Inconsistencies ·································································································· 121 3.6 Disagreements ··································································································· 122 3.7 Sensitivity Analysis ··························································································· 124 3.8 Expert Panels ···································································································· 126 3.9 Research Validation ·························································································· 128 Chapter 4 – Case Application and Research Development ........................................... 130 4.1 Case Background ······························································································ 130 4.1.1 The Pharmaceutical Market in China ......................................................... 130 4.1.2 The Biopharmaceutical Sector ................................................................... 132 4.1.3 Policy Factors ............................................................................................ 132 4.2 Model Development ·························································································· 133 4.2.1 Mission Level ............................................................................................ 134 ix 4.2.2 Technology Level – Prospective Technology Areas ................................... 134 4.2.3 Strategy Level – Technology Development Strategies................................ 138 4.2.4 Resource Level – Innovation Resource Alternatives .................................. 138 4.3 Model Validation ······························································································ 140 4.4 The Finalized Research Model ·········································································· 143 4.5 Formation of Expert Panel ················································································· 145 4.6 Data Collection ································································································· 146 Chapter 5 – Results and Data Analysis......................................................................... 150 5.1 Quantification Results ······················································································· 150 5.1.1 Contribution of Technologies to Mission ................................................... 150 5.1.2 Contribution of Development Strategies to Technologies Areas ................. 153 5.1.3 Contribution of Resources to Strategies ..................................................... 167 5.1.4 Overall Contributions ................................................................................ 174 5.2 Measurement of Disagreement ·········································································· 179 5.2.1 Technology Level ...................................................................................... 180 5.2.2 Strategy Level............................................................................................ 181 5.2.3 Variance among Subgroups ....................................................................... 184 5.2.4 Resource Level .......................................................................................... 187 5.2.5 Summary on Disagreement Analysis.......................................................... 188 5.3 Sensitivity Analysis ··························································································· 189 Chapter 6 – Discussions and Recommendations........................................................... 194 6.1 Prospective Technology Areas ·········································································· 194 6.1.1 High Priority Technology Areas ................................................................