Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario

[1]  N. DiGirolamo,et al.  Sea ice extents continue to set new records: Arctic, Antarctic, and global results , 2021, Remote Sensing of Environment.

[2]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty , 2021, Communications Earth & Environment.

[3]  M. Leonard,et al.  The Arctic Carbon Cycle and Its Response to Changing Climate , 2021, Current Climate Change Reports.

[4]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period , 2021, Nature Climate Change.

[5]  A. Lauer,et al.  Constraining Uncertainties in CMIP5 Projections of September Arctic Sea Ice Extent with Observations , 2020, Journal of Climate.

[6]  R. Davy,et al.  The Arctic Surface Climate in CMIP6: Status and Developments since CMIP5 , 2019, Journal of Climate.

[7]  A. Hall,et al.  An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback , 2019, Nature Climate Change.

[8]  I. Overeem,et al.  The Expanding Footprint of Rapid Arctic Change , 2019, Earth's Future.

[9]  G. Faluvegi,et al.  Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur , 2019, Scientific Reports.

[10]  M. L’Heureux,et al.  Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations , 2018, Nature Geoscience.

[11]  Julienne Stroeve,et al.  Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons , 2018, Environmental Research Letters.

[12]  C. Morice,et al.  Estimating the Transient Climate Response from Observed Warming , 2018, Journal of Climate.

[13]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Impacts of the 1900–74 Increase in Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions from North America and Europe on Eurasian Summer Climate , 2018, Journal of Climate.

[14]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Attribution of Arctic Sea Ice Decline from 1953 to 2012 to Influences from Natural, Greenhouse Gas, and Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing , 2018, Journal of Climate.

[15]  S. Kern,et al.  Version 2 of the EUMETSAT OSI SAF and ESA CCI sea-ice concentration climate data records , 2018, The Cryosphere.

[16]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Recent Very Hot Summers in Northern Hemispheric Land Areas Measured by Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Will Be the Norm Within 20 Years , 2017 .

[17]  Marie‐Ève Gagné,et al.  Arctic sea ice response to the eruptions of Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo , 2017 .

[18]  J. Comiso,et al.  Variability and trends in the Arctic Sea ice cover: Results from different techniques , 2017 .

[19]  Marie‐Ève Gagné,et al.  Aerosol‐driven increase in Arctic sea ice over the middle of the twentieth century , 2017 .

[20]  S. Kravtsov Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5‐simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century , 2017 .

[21]  B. Dong,et al.  Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[22]  Reto Knutti,et al.  The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0)contribution to CMIP6 , 2016 .

[23]  Brian C. O'Neill,et al.  The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 , 2016 .

[24]  Stephen E. L. Howell,et al.  Regional variability of a projected sea ice‐free Arctic during the summer months , 2016 .

[25]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization , 2015 .

[26]  Ed Hawkins,et al.  Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends , 2015 .

[27]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China , 2014 .

[28]  Dirk Notz,et al.  Sea-ice extent and its trend provide limited metrics of model performance , 2014 .

[29]  Vivek K. Arora,et al.  One hundred years of Arctic surface temperature variation due to anthropogenic influence , 2013, Scientific Reports.

[30]  Aurélien Ribes,et al.  Application of regularised optimal fingerprinting to attribution. Part I: method, properties and idealised analysis , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[31]  M. Holland,et al.  Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice , 2012 .

[32]  M. Holland,et al.  Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations , 2012 .

[33]  R. Knutti,et al.  September Arctic sea ice predicted to disappear near 2°C global warming above present , 2011 .

[34]  A. Hall,et al.  September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100 , 2009 .

[35]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Human influence on Arctic sea ice detectable from early 1990s onwards , 2008 .

[36]  P. Stott,et al.  Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: theory , 2003 .

[37]  P. Stott,et al.  Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise , 2002, Nature.

[38]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change , 2000, Nature.

[39]  Chris Martens,et al.  Theory , 1934, Secrets in Global Governance.

[40]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent , 2017 .

[41]  A. J. Estimates of Uncertainty in Predictions of Global Mean Surface Temperature , 2005 .

[42]  Donald J. Cavalieri,et al.  Passive microwave algorithms for sea ice concentration: A comparison of two techniques , 1997 .