Labour market scenarios for the Asian Decent Work Decade in the Pacific Island countries

Abstract This paper presents the key trends in the economies and labour markets of Pacific island countries that are ILO Member Countries and the main issues facing policy makers in promoting decent and productive employment in these economies. It presents past trends and projections in population growth and in working-age cohorts, in formal employment, in the labour force and labour force participation rates, and in national income, and identifies the economic activities that are most likely to provide growth in formal employment in the countries. It also looks at the role being played by migration and overseas employment of Pacific islanders. The paper examines the factors that could most inhibit development of formal labour markets and decent and productive employment during the Asian Decent Work Decade and the role that the ILO could play in helping to overcome these obstacles together with other agencies working in the Pacific region. As the development of appropriate and effective policies will require a solid understanding of current labour market issues and trends, the paper also identifies the key gaps in statistical information on the labour market in the Pacific and how the ILO may assist in filling these gaps. Some key findings in the paper include: 1. Population growth rates are high (above 2 per cent) in the Pacific ILO Member Countries except in those countries that have easy exit to high-income countries. A result of the rapid population growth is a large and growing ‘youth bulge’ in many of the Pacific countries. Because of the low levels of investment and job creation, the economic benefits of the youth bulge that were realized in the high economic growth countries of East Asia are significantly less likely to be realized in the Pacific countries. Moreover, this youth bulge will ensure that rapid population growth continues for a considerable time. 2. Using population and formal employment projections, estimates have been made of the potential excess supply of labour in some of the Pacific countries. The projected large increases in labour are unlikely to be absorbed in the formal labour market in the Melanesian countries (except Fiji, which has a more moderate increase) and in the Republic of Marshall Islands, which is a cause for concern. About the authors