Monte Carlo Simulation and Transmission Loss Evaluation With Probabilistic Method

A new method to simulate the states of transmission network and to evaluate its power losses was presented based on probabilistic methodology. The proposed method includes two parts. One part is the simulation of system states. In which, the stochastic variables with normal distribution are used to express the electric loads, and a new model of unit commitment and its heuristic approach are proposed to simulate the unit states, and the voltage and reactive power control (VQC) of substation and the reverse voltage regulation of generating plants are applied to simulating the voltage/var operation states of power network. The other part is Monte Carlo simulation. In which, the probabilistic distribution of the transmission loss rate is determined by nonlinear power flow computation after the states of the stochastic sample are regulated by the simulation method above. Because the affects to transmission losses are fully considered by the proposed method, the result is more accurate and more useful. Simulation test was given to testify the validity and efficiency of the proposed method.