Reducing societal impacts of SARS-CoV-2 interventions through subnational implementation

To curb the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, many countries relied on nation-wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, at a high socio-economic cost. Using the first COVID-19 wave in the Netherlands as a case in point, we address how subnational implementations might have achieved similar levels of epidemiological control with fewer societal consequences; e.g., parts of the country could have stayed open for longer. To this end, we develop a high-resolution analysis framework reflecting a demographically stratified population with a spatially explicit, dynamic, individual contact pattern-based epidemiology, exploiting mobility trends extracted from mobile phone signals and Google mobility. The framework is exportable to other countries and settings, and may be used to develop policies on subnational approach as a better strategic choice for controlling future epidemics.