The potential for soil phosphorus tests to predict phosphorus losses in overland flow.

Soil phosphorus tests offer a potentially powerful tool for land managers trying to predict the areas which will contribute diffuse losses of phosphorus (P) to surface water bodies through the overland flow vector - but do they work? We address this question at a range of scales, from patch ( 0.45 m. By combining the soil P test with measured sediment concentrations predictions of total P concentrations improved. Outdoor rainfall simulation experiments on bare soil plots (10 m2) revealed the overwhelming influence of particle bound P losses compared with P losses in the water phase. Soil P tests, which relate primarily to the dissolved P fractions in soil, were not able to predict total P losses, but were related to reactive P < 0.45 m losses. At the watershed scale soil P tests were able to predict reactive P < 0.45 m losses, but with considerable uncertainty. We conclude that soil P tests, in combination with sediment concentration provide a useful means of assessing the mobilization of P in overland flow, but should not be expected to provide watershed scale predictions of the movement of P into overland flow.