Predicting future personal life events on twitter via recurrent neural networks

Social network users publicly share a wide variety of information with their followers and the general public ranging from their opinions, sentiments and personal life activities. There has already been significant advance in analyzing the shared information from both micro (individual user) and macro (community level) perspectives, giving access to actionable insight about user and community behaviors. The identification of personal life events from user’s profiles is a challenging yet important task, which if done appropriately, would facilitate more accurate identification of users’ preferences, interests and attitudes. For instance, a user who has just broken his phone , is likely to be upset and also be looking to purchase a new phone. While there is work that identifies tweets that include mentions of personal life events, our work in this paper goes beyond the state of the art by predicting a future personal life event that a user will be posting about on Twitter solely based on the past tweets. We propose two architectures based on recurrent neural networks , namely the classification and generation architectures, that determine the future personal life event of a user. We evaluate our work based on a gold standard Twitter life event dataset and compare our work with the state of the art baseline technique for life event detection. While presenting performance measures, we also discuss the limitations of our work in this paper.

[1]  Julien Velcin,et al.  Sentiment analysis on social media for stock movement prediction , 2015, Expert Syst. Appl..

[2]  Jeffrey Dean,et al.  Distributed Representations of Words and Phrases and their Compositionality , 2013, NIPS.

[3]  Xiang Zhang,et al.  Character-level Convolutional Networks for Text Classification , 2015, NIPS.

[4]  Kiyoaki Shirai,et al.  Topic Modeling based Sentiment Analysis on Social Media for Stock Market Prediction , 2015, ACL.

[5]  Cecilia Ovesdotter Alm,et al.  Generating Clinically Relevant Texts: A Case Study on Life-Changing Events , 2016, CLPsych@HLT-NAACL.

[6]  Hang Li,et al.  Neural Responding Machine for Short-Text Conversation , 2015, ACL.

[7]  Georgios Paltoglou,et al.  Sentiment‐based event detection in Twitter , 2016, J. Assoc. Inf. Sci. Technol..

[8]  Nemanja Djuric,et al.  Large-scale World Cup 2014 outcome prediction based on Tumblr posts , 2014 .

[9]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  Domain Adaptation for Large-Scale Sentiment Classification: A Deep Learning Approach , 2011, ICML.

[10]  Ebrahim Bagheri,et al.  Time-Sensitive Topic-Based Communities on Twitter , 2016, Canadian Conference on AI.

[11]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  Learning long-term dependencies with gradient descent is difficult , 1994, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[12]  Matt J. Kusner,et al.  From Word Embeddings To Document Distances , 2015, ICML.

[13]  Yiannis Kompatsiaris,et al.  Predicting Elections for Multiple Countries Using Twitter and Polls , 2015, IEEE Intelligent Systems.

[14]  Gregory J. Park,et al.  Psychological Language on Twitter Predicts County-Level Heart Disease Mortality , 2015, Psychological science.

[15]  Paulo Rodrigo Cavalin,et al.  A Multiple Classifier System for Classifying Life Events on Social Media , 2015, 2015 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshop (ICDMW).

[16]  Ebrahim Bagheri,et al.  Temporally Like-minded User Community Identification through Neural Embeddings , 2017, CIKM.

[17]  Bowen Zhou,et al.  Multiresolution Recurrent Neural Networks: An Application to Dialogue Response Generation , 2016, AAAI.

[18]  Ming Ni,et al.  Using Social Media to Predict Traffic Flow under Special Event Conditions , 2013 .

[19]  P J Webros BACKPROPAGATION THROUGH TIME: WHAT IT DOES AND HOW TO DO IT , 1990 .

[20]  Paulo Rodrigo Cavalin,et al.  Towards Personalized Offers by Means of Life Event Detection on Social Media and Entity Matching , 2014, HT.

[21]  Oren Etzioni,et al.  Named Entity Recognition in Tweets: An Experimental Study , 2011, EMNLP.

[22]  Ting Liu,et al.  Document Modeling with Gated Recurrent Neural Network for Sentiment Classification , 2015, EMNLP.

[23]  Taghi M. Khoshgoftaar,et al.  Using Twitter Content to Predict Psychopathy , 2012, 2012 11th International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications.

[24]  Quoc V. Le,et al.  Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks , 2014, NIPS.

[25]  Xin Zhao,et al.  Finding Diachronic Like‐Minded Users , 2018, Comput. Intell..

[26]  Soroush Vosoughi,et al.  Tweet2Vec: Learning Tweet Embeddings Using Character-level CNN-LSTM Encoder-Decoder , 2016, SIGIR.

[27]  Zhong Zhou,et al.  Tweet2Vec: Character-Based Distributed Representations for Social Media , 2016, ACL.

[28]  Harith Alani,et al.  Detecting Presence of Personal Events in Twitter Streams , 2014, SocInfo Workshops.

[29]  Nigel Collier,et al.  Bidirectional LSTM for Named Entity Recognition in Twitter Messages , 2016, NUT@COLING.

[30]  Wei Gao,et al.  Detecting Rumors from Microblogs with Recurrent Neural Networks , 2016, IJCAI.

[31]  Weiguo Fan,et al.  The power of social media analytics , 2014, CACM.

[32]  Omar Boussaïd,et al.  Real-time trending topics detection and description from Twitter content , 2015, Social Network Analysis and Mining.

[33]  Paul Mulholland,et al.  Identifying Prominent Life Events on Twitter , 2015, K-CAP.

[34]  Eric Horvitz,et al.  Predicting Depression via Social Media , 2013, ICWSM.

[35]  Leo Breiman,et al.  Bagging Predictors , 1996, Machine Learning.

[36]  Erhardt Barth,et al.  A Hybrid Convolutional Variational Autoencoder for Text Generation , 2017, EMNLP.

[37]  Carson Kai-Sang Leung,et al.  Social Media Mining: Prediction of Box Office Revenue , 2017, IDEAS.

[38]  Oliver Hinz,et al.  Using Twitter to Predict the Stock Market , 2015, Business & Information Systems Engineering.

[39]  Mohamed A. Sharaf,et al.  Emerging event detection in social networks with location sensitivity , 2014, World Wide Web.

[40]  Yueting Zhuang,et al.  User Preference Learning for Online Social Recommendation , 2016, IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering.

[41]  Mohsen Kahani,et al.  Inferring Implicit Topical Interests on Twitter , 2016, ECIR.

[42]  Ming Zhou,et al.  Learning Sentiment-Specific Word Embedding for Twitter Sentiment Classification , 2014, ACL.

[43]  Kuldip K. Paliwal,et al.  Bidirectional recurrent neural networks , 1997, IEEE Trans. Signal Process..

[44]  Alessandro Moschitti,et al.  Twitter Sentiment Analysis with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks , 2015, SIGIR.

[45]  Diyi Yang,et al.  Hierarchical Attention Networks for Document Classification , 2016, NAACL.

[46]  Mohsen Kahani,et al.  Detecting life events from twitter based on temporal semantic features , 2018, Knowl. Based Syst..

[47]  Chang-Gun Lee,et al.  Estimating Influenza Outbreaks Using Both Search Engine Query Data and Social Media Data in South Korea , 2016, Journal of medical Internet research.

[48]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  On the Properties of Neural Machine Translation: Encoder–Decoder Approaches , 2014, SSST@EMNLP.

[49]  Ting Liu,et al.  Predicting movie Box-office revenues by exploiting large-scale social media content , 2014, Multimedia Tools and Applications.

[50]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Generating Text with Recurrent Neural Networks , 2011, ICML.

[51]  Razvan Pascanu,et al.  Theano: new features and speed improvements , 2012, ArXiv.

[52]  Fabio Franch (Wisdom of the Crowds)2: 2010 UK Election Prediction with Social Media , 2013 .

[53]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  Describing Multimedia Content Using Attention-Based Encoder-Decoder Networks , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Multimedia.

[54]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder–Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation , 2014, EMNLP.

[55]  Abdolreza Abhari,et al.  Cluster-discovery of Twitter messages for event detection and trending , 2015, J. Comput. Sci..

[56]  Jakob Grue Simonsen,et al.  A Hierarchical Recurrent Encoder-Decoder for Generative Context-Aware Query Suggestion , 2015, CIKM.

[57]  Ravikiran Vatrapu,et al.  Predicting iPhone Sales from iPhone Tweets , 2014, 2014 IEEE 18th International Enterprise Distributed Object Computing Conference.

[58]  Qi Li,et al.  User-level psychological stress detection from social media using deep neural network , 2014, ACM Multimedia.

[59]  Deniz Yuret,et al.  Why Neural Translations are the Right Length , 2016, EMNLP.

[60]  Johan Bollen,et al.  Twitter mood predicts the stock market , 2010, J. Comput. Sci..

[61]  Nick E. Green,et al.  Detecting Life Events in Feeds from Twitter , 2013, 2013 IEEE Seventh International Conference on Semantic Computing.

[62]  Mark Dredze,et al.  From ADHD to SAD: Analyzing the Language of Mental Health on Twitter through Self-Reported Diagnoses , 2015, CLPsych@HLT-NAACL.

[63]  Michael P. Cameron,et al.  Can Social Media Predict Election Results? Evidence From New Zealand , 2016 .

[64]  Brendan T. O'Connor,et al.  Improved Part-of-Speech Tagging for Online Conversational Text with Word Clusters , 2013, NAACL.

[65]  Franck Dernoncourt,et al.  Sequential Short-Text Classification with Recurrent and Convolutional Neural Networks , 2016, NAACL.

[66]  Claire Cardie,et al.  Major Life Event Extraction from Twitter based on Congratulations/Condolences Speech Acts , 2014, EMNLP.

[67]  Wei Wei,et al.  Correlating S&P 500 stocks with Twitter data , 2012, HotSocial '12.

[68]  Jeffrey Dean,et al.  Efficient Estimation of Word Representations in Vector Space , 2013, ICLR.

[69]  Paulo R. Cavalin,et al.  Life Event Detection using Conversations from Social Media , 2015 .

[70]  Yang Li,et al.  Hashtag Recommendation with Topical Attention-Based LSTM , 2016, COLING.

[71]  Alex Graves,et al.  Generating Sequences With Recurrent Neural Networks , 2013, ArXiv.

[72]  Olga Baysal,et al.  Mining Twitter Data for Influenza Detection and Surveillance , 2016, 2016 IEEE/ACM International Workshop on Software Engineering in Healthcare Systems (SEHS).

[73]  Yoon Kim,et al.  Convolutional Neural Networks for Sentence Classification , 2014, EMNLP.

[74]  Jürgen Schmidhuber,et al.  Long Short-Term Memory , 1997, Neural Computation.

[75]  Maarten Sap,et al.  The role of personality, age, and gender in tweeting about mental illness , 2015, CLPsych@HLT-NAACL.

[76]  Jimmy Ba,et al.  Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization , 2014, ICLR.

[77]  Alex Graves,et al.  Sequence Transduction with Recurrent Neural Networks , 2012, ArXiv.

[78]  Harith Alani,et al.  Personal Life Event Detection from Social Media , 2014, HT.