Social benefit versus technological risk.

AN APPROACHED IS PRESENTED FOR ESTABLISHING A QUANTITATIVE MEASURE OF BENEFIT RELATIVE COST FOR ACCIDENTAL DEATHS ARISING FROM TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN PUBLIC USE. THE ANALYSIS IS BASED ON TWO ASSUMPTIONS: (1) HISTORICAL NATIONAL ACCIDENT RECORDS ARE ADEQUATE FOR REVEALING CONSISTENT PATTERNS OF FATALITIES IN THE PUBLIC USE OF TECHNOLOGY, AND (2) THAT SUCH HISTORICALLY REVEALED SOCIAL PREFERENCES AND COSTS ARE SUFFICIENTLY ENDURING TO PERMIT THEIR USE FOR PREDICTIVE PURPOSES. SOCIETAL ACTIVITIES FALL INTO TWO GENERAL CATEGORIES--THOSE IN WHICH THE INDIVIDUAL PARTICIPATES ON A "VOLUNTARY" BASIS AND THOSE IN WHICH THE PARTICIPATION IS "INVOLUNTARY" IMPOSED BY THE SOCIETY IN WHICH THE INDIVIDUAL LIVES. ALTHOUGH THIS STUDY IS EXPLORATORY, IT REVEALS SEVERAL INTERESTING POINTS: (1) THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PUBLIC IS WILLING TO ACCEPT "VOLUNTARY" RISKS ROUGHLY 1000 TIMES GREATER THAN "INVOLUNTARY" RISKS. (2) THE STATISTICAL RISK OF DEATH FROM DISEASE APPEARS TO BE A PSYCHOLOGICAL YARDSTICK FOR ESTABLISHING THE LEVEL OF ACCEPTABILITY OF OTHER RISKS. (3) THE ACCEPTABILITY OF RISK APPEARS TO BE CRUDELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE THIRD POWER OF BENEFITS (REAL OR IMAGINED). (4) THE SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE OF RISK IS DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY PUBLIC AWARENESS OF THE BENEFITS OF AN ACTIVITY, AS DETERMINED BY ADVERTISING, USEFULNESS, AND THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE PARTICIPATING. (5) IN A SAMPLE APPLICATION OF THESE CRITERIA TO ATOMIC POWER PLANT SAFETY, IT APPEARS THAT ENGINEERING DESIGN OBJECTIVELY DETERMINED BY ECONOMIC CRITERIA WOULD RESULT IN A DESIGN-TARGET RISK LEVEL VERY MUCH LOWER THAN THE PRESENT SOCIALLY ACCEPTED RISK FOR ELECTRIC POWER PLANTS. THIS METHODOLOGY FOR REVEALING EXISTING SOCIAL PREFERENCES AND VALUES MAY BE A MEANS OF PROVIDING THE INSIGHT IN SOCIAL BENEFIT RELATIVE TO COST THAT IS NECESSARY FOR JUDICIOUS NATIONAL DECISIONS IN NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS. THE APPENDIX CONTAINS THE DOCUMENTATION FOR RISK BENEFIT ANALYSIS CALCULATED FOR MOTOR-VEHICLE TRAVEL, TRAVEL BY AIR ROUTE CARRIER, GENERAL AVIATION, RAILROAD TRAVEL, SKIING, HUNTING, SMOKING, VIETNAM, ELECTRIC POWER, NATURAL DISASTERS, AND DIEASES AND ACCIDENTS. /SRIS/