Reliability and variance-based sensitivity analysis of arch dams during construction and reservoir impoundment

The static performance of arch dams during construction and reservoir impoundment is assessed taking into account the effects of uncertainties presented in the model properties as well as the loading conditions. Dez arch dam is chosen as the case study; it is modeled along with its rock foundation using the finite element method considering the stage construction. Since previous studies concentrated on simplified models and approaches, comprehensive study of the arch dam model along with efficient and state-of-the-art uncertainty methods are incorporated in this investigation. The reliability method is performed to assess the safety level and the sensitivity analyses for identifying critical input factors and their interaction effects on the response of the dam. Global sensitivity analysis based on improved Latin hypercube sampling is employed in this study to indicate the influence of each random variable and their interaction on variance of the responses. Four levels of model advancement are considered for the dam-foundation system: 1) Monolithic dam without any joint founded on the homogeneous rock foundation, 2) monolithic dam founded on the inhomogeneous foundation including soft rock layers, 3) jointed dam including the peripheral and contraction joints founded on the homogeneous foundation, and 4) jointed dam founded on the inhomogeneous foundation. For each model, proper performance indices are defined through limit-state functions. In this manner, the effects of input parameters in each performance level of the dam are investigated. The outcome of this study is defining the importance of input factors in each stage and model based on the variance of the dam response. Moreover, the results of sampling are computed in order to assess the safety level of the dam in miscellaneous loading and modeling conditions.

[1]  D. V. Griffiths,et al.  Bearing Capacity of Rough Rigid Strip Footing on Cohesive Soil: Probabilistic Study , 2002 .

[2]  Timon Rabczuk,et al.  A software framework for probabilistic sensitivity analysis for computationally expensive models , 2016, Adv. Eng. Softw..

[3]  Stefano Tarantola,et al.  Winding Stairs: A sampling tool to compute sensitivity indices , 2000, Stat. Comput..

[4]  Mohsen Ghaemian,et al.  Thermal Stress Analysis of Concrete Arch Dams Due to Environmental Action , 2004 .

[5]  N As.  Analysis of foundation sliding of an arch dam considering the hydromechanical behavior , 2012 .

[6]  Steen Krenk,et al.  Parametric Sensitivity in First Order Reliability Theory , 1989 .

[7]  R. Rackwitz,et al.  Sensitivity and importance measures in structural reliability , 1986 .

[8]  Mohammad Alembagheri,et al.  Incremental dynamic analysis of concrete gravity dams including base and lift joints , 2013, Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration.

[9]  I. Sobola,et al.  Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates , 2001 .

[10]  Patrick Paultre,et al.  Seismic Fragility of Concrete Gravity Dams with Spatial Variation of Angle of Friction: Case Study , 2016 .

[11]  Khader M. Hamdia,et al.  Stochastic analysis of the fracture toughness of polymeric nanoparticle composites using polynomial chaos expansions , 2017, International Journal of Fracture.

[12]  D. V. Griffiths,et al.  Influence of Soil Strength Spatial Variability on the Stability of an Undrained Clay Slope by Finite Elements , 2000 .

[13]  Pedram Mosahebi Mohammadi,et al.  THE EFFECT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN RESERVOIR AND MULTI-LAYER FOUNDATION ON THE DYNAMIC RESPONSE OF A TYPICAL ARCH DAM (KARAJ DAM) TO "P" AND "S" WAVES , 2009 .

[14]  A. Karakas.  Practical Rock Engineering , 2008 .

[15]  Abdallah I. Husein Malkawi,et al.  Uncertainty and reliability analysis applied to slope stability , 2000 .

[16]  In Hwan Yang,et al.  Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of time-dependent effects in concrete structures , 2007 .

[17]  Mohammad Alembagheri,et al.  Seismic performance sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of gravity dams , 2015 .

[18]  Henrik O. Madsen,et al.  Structural Reliability Methods , 1996 .

[19]  Lin Gao,et al.  Earthquake analysis of arch and gravity dams including the effects of foundation inhomogeneity , 2007 .

[20]  Paola Annoni,et al.  Variance based sensitivity analysis of model output. Design and estimator for the total sensitivity index , 2010, Comput. Phys. Commun..

[21]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Implementation and evaluation of nonparametric regression procedures for sensitivity analysis of computationally demanding models , 2009, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[22]  A. O'Hagan,et al.  Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach , 2004 .

[23]  I. Sobol,et al.  Sensitivity Measures, ANOVA-like Techniques and the Use of Bootstrap , 1997 .

[24]  T. Rabczuk,et al.  Stochastic predictions of interfacial characteristic of polymeric nanocomposites (PNCs) , 2014 .

[25]  Wei Tian,et al.  A review of sensitivity analysis methods in building energy analysis , 2013 .

[26]  Wei-Xin Ren,et al.  Parameter Selection in Finite-Element-Model Updating by Global Sensitivity Analysis Using Gaussian Process Metamodel , 2015 .

[27]  Mohammad Alembagheri,et al.  Seismic performance evaluation of a jointed arch dam , 2016 .

[28]  Mohammad Alembagheri,et al.  Damage assessment of a concrete arch dam through nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis , 2013 .

[29]  Hans Janssen,et al.  Efficiency enhancement of optimized Latin hypercube sampling strategies: Application to Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis and meta-modeling , 2015 .

[30]  T. Rabczuk,et al.  Uncertainty quantification for multiscale modeling of polymer nanocomposites with correlated parameters , 2015 .

[31]  Prishati Raychowdhury,et al.  Shallow foundation response variability due to soil and model parameter uncertainty , 2014 .

[32]  Alessio Lupoi,et al.  The Role of Probabilistic Methods in Evaluating the Seismic Risk of Concrete Dams , 2011 .

[33]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis , 2006, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[34]  T. Rabczuk,et al.  A unified framework for stochastic predictions of mechanical properties of polymeric nanocomposites , 2015 .

[35]  A. Saltelli,et al.  Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models , 1996 .

[36]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  A comparison of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained with random and Latin hypercube sampling , 2005, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[37]  Eduardo Alonso,et al.  RISK ANALYSIS OF SLOPES AND ITS APPLICATION TO SLOPES IN CANADIAN SENSITIVE CLAYS , 1976 .

[38]  Maria Luísa Braga Farinha,et al.  Analysis of foundation sliding of an arch dam considering the hydromechanical behavior , 2012 .

[39]  C. Cornell,et al.  Sensitivity estimation within first and second order reliability methods , 1992 .

[40]  Ronald L. Iman.  Latin Hypercube Sampling , 2008 .

[41]  W. H. Tang,et al.  Probability-based short term design of soil slopes , 1976 .

[42]  Mohammad Rajabi,et al.  Polynomial chaos expansions for uncertainty propagation and moment independent sensitivity analysis of seawater intrusion simulations , 2015 .

[43]  Gordon A. Fenton,et al.  RELIABILITY OF TRADITIONAL RETAINING WALL DESIGN , 2005 .

[44]  T. Rabczuk,et al.  Stochastic predictions of bulk properties of amorphous polyethylene based on molecular dynamics simulations , 2014 .

[45]  Niels C. Lind,et al.  Methods of structural safety , 2006 .

[46]  Armando Miguel Awruch,et al.  Probabilistic finite element analysis of concrete gravity dams , 1998 .

[47]  M. Wieland,et al.  Long-term dam safety monitoring of Punt dal Gall arch dam in Switzerland , 2012 .

[48]  Ignacio Escuder-Bueno,et al.  Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis , 2012 .

[49]  J. Christian,et al.  Reliability Applied to Slope Stability Analysis , 1994 .

[50]  Palle Thoft-Christensen,et al.  Structural Reliability Theory and Its Applications , 1982 .

[51]  A. Soroush,et al.  Coupled stress–seepage analysis of Karun III concrete arch dam , 2013 .

[52]  Mohammad Alembagheri,et al.  Seismic assessment of concrete gravity dams using capacity estimation and damage indexes , 2013 .

[53]  Alemdar Bayraktar,et al.  Influence of base-rock characteristics on the stochastic dynamic response of dam–reservoir–foundation systems , 2005 .

[54]  A. Olsson,et al.  On Latin hypercube sampling for structural reliability analysis , 2003 .

[55]  R. Dawson,et al.  Sensitivity Analysis for Hydraulic Models , 2009 .

[56]  I. Gupta,et al.  Analyzing the effect of foundation inhomogeneity on the seismic response of gravity dams , 2015 .