Soil erosion prediction in the Grande River Basin, Brazil using distributed modeling

Abstract Mapping and assessment of erosion risk is an important tool for planning of natural resources management, allowing researchers to modify land-use properly and implement management strategies more sustainable in the long-term. The Grande River Basin (GRB), located in Minas Gerais State, is one of the Planning Units for Management of Water Resources (UPGRH) and is divided into seven smaller units of UPGRH. GD1 is one of them that is essential for the future development of Minas Gerais State due to its high water yield capacity and potential for electric energy production. The objective of this study is to apply the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with GIS PCRaster in order to estimate potential soil loss from the Grande River Basin upstream from the Itutinga/Camargos Hydroelectric Plant Reservoir (GD1), allowing identification of the susceptible areas to water erosion and estimate of the sediment delivery ratio for the adoption of land management so that further soil loss can be minimized. For the USLE model, the following factors were used: rainfall–runoff erosivity ( R ), erodibility ( K ), topographic (LS), cover-management ( C ) and support practice ( P ). The Fournier Index was applied to estimate R for the basin using six pluviometric stations. Maps of the K , C , LS and P factors were derived from the digital elevation model (DEM), and soil and land-use maps, taking into account information available in the literature. In order to validate the simulation process, Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) was estimated, which is based on transported sediment (TS) to basin outlet and mean soil loss in the basin (MSL). The SDR calculation included data (total solids in the water and respective discharge) between 1996 and 2003 which were measured at a gauging station located on the Grande River and a daily flow data set was obtained from the Brazilian National Water Agency (ANA). It was possible to validate the erosion process based on the USLE and SDR application for the basin conditions, since absolute errors of estimate were low. The major area of the basin (about 53%) had an average annual soil loss of less than 5 t ha − 1 yr − 1 . With the results obtained we were able to conclude that 49% of the overall basin presently has soil loss greater than the tolerable rate, thus indicating that there are zones where the erosion process is critical, meaning that both management and land-use have not been used appropriately in these areas of the basin. The methodology applied showed acceptable precision and allowed identification of the most susceptible areas to water erosion, constituting an important predictive tool for soil and environmental management in this region, which is highly relevant for prediction of varying development scenarios for Minas Gerais State due to its hydroelectric energy potential. This approach can be applied to other areas for simple, reliable identification of critical areas of soil erosion in watersheds.