UNCERTAINTIES OF ASPHALT LAYER THICKNESS DETERMINATION IN FLEXIBLE PAVEMENTS-INFLUENCE DIAGRAM APPROACH

Abstract The thickness of pavement layers is an important parameter used in Pavement Management Systems (PMS). Thickness data are used for pavement condition assessment, performance predictions, selection of maintenance strategies and rehabilitation treatments, basic quality assessment, and as input to overlay thickness design. Pavement thickness is usually determined from direct testing such core samples, nondestructive testing such as radar, or historical records such as pavements network database. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Influence Diagrams as a tool in providing a probabilistic model for thickness determination procedure in flexible pavements. The Bayesian Influence Diagram Model is presented as a framework for addressing uncertainties involved in capturing quantitative and qualitative information in the asphalt layer thickness determination procedures. The model is also used to perform value of information analysis in the determination of pavement layer thickness. The Influence Diagram...