Pricing Reliability: A Probabilistic Approach

This paper proposes the allocation of operating reserve in power systems through competitive capacity markets using a prob- abilistic approach. The insurance features of operating reserve are used to derive a valuation model that is analytically consistent and reflects the economic value of increased reliability to customers. The model can be expressed in the form of a demand curve for op- erating reserve. This curve can be used in auction-type capacity markets to determine the amount of reserve to be provided and its trading price.