Ship Collision Frequency Estimation in Port Fairways: A Case Study

This study aims to evaluate ship collision frequency in port fairways. One case study is created using one month’s real-time ship movement data from five major Singapore port fairways. Results show that tankers account for the biggest proportion in the Temasek fairway, whereas the percentage of Roll-on-Roll-Off (RORO) and passenger ships is quite small in the Temasek fairway, Sinki fairway, Jong fairway and Southern fairway. Tankers and container ships are the two major ship types involved in dangerous encounters. The largest number of dangerous head-on and overtaking encounters is located in the Jong fairway. The majority of dangerous crossing encounters have occurred in the West Keppel fairway and Jong fairway. Ship collision frequency at night is found to be significantly higher than during the day in these fairways.

[1]  Maria Hänninen,et al.  Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland , 2009, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[2]  Ashim Kumar Debnath,et al.  Navigational traffic conflict technique: a proactive approach to quantitative measurement of collision risks in port waters , 2010 .

[3]  Ning Wang,et al.  An Intelligent Spatial Collision Risk Based on the Quaternion Ship Domain , 2010, Journal of Navigation.

[4]  Xinping Yan,et al.  A spatial–temporal forensic analysis for inland–water ship collisions using AIS data , 2013 .

[5]  N. Akten Analysis of Shipping Casualties in the Bosphorus , 2004, Journal of Navigation.

[6]  Li Suyi,et al.  Ship collision risk assessment for the Singapore Strait. , 2011, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[7]  Tsz Leung Yip,et al.  Port traffic risks - a study of accidents in Hong Kong waters , 2008 .

[8]  A. Blokus-Roszkowska,et al.  Collision risk estimation for motorways of the sea , 2012 .

[9]  Ashim Kumar Debnath,et al.  Hierarchical Modeling of Perceived Collision Risks in Port Fairways , 2009 .

[10]  Zbigniew Pietrzykowski,et al.  The Ship Domain : A Criterion of Navigational Safety Assessment in an Open Sea Area , 2009 .

[11]  Toke Koldborg Jensen,et al.  Empirical Ship Domain based on AIS Data , 2013, Journal of Navigation.

[12]  Preben Terndrup Pedersen,et al.  Collision risk for fixed offshore structures close to high-density shipping lanes , 2002 .

[13]  Shell-Ying Huang,et al.  Dynamic Control of Intention Priorities of Human-Like Agents , 2006, ECAI.

[14]  Other International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea , 1937, American Journal of International Law.

[15]  Jakub Montewka,et al.  Determination of collision criteria and causation factors appropriate to a model for estimating the probability of maritime accidents , 2012 .

[16]  Jakub Montewka,et al.  Assessing Grounding Frequency using Ship Traffic and Waterway Complexity , 2014, Journal of Navigation.

[17]  A. Debnath,et al.  Modelling Port Water Collision Risk Using Traffic Conflicts , 2011, Journal of Navigation.

[18]  Rafal Szlapczynski,et al.  A Unified Measure Of Collision Risk Derived From The Concept Of A Ship Domain , 2006, Journal of Navigation.

[19]  Qiang Meng,et al.  An Overview of Maritime Waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment Models , 2012, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[20]  Yahei Fujii,et al.  II—The Probability of Stranding , 1974 .

[21]  H. Ligteringen,et al.  Study on collision avoidance in busy waterways by using AIS data , 2010 .

[22]  Fowler,et al.  Modeling Ship Transportation Risk , 2000, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[23]  X. Qu,et al.  Vessel Collision Frequency Estimation in the Singapore Strait , 2012 .

[24]  Jakub Montewka,et al.  Uncertainty in maritime risk analysis: Extended case study on chemical tanker collisions , 2015 .

[25]  C. C. Glansdorp,et al.  Operational benefits and risk reduction of marine accidents , 1998 .

[26]  Jakub Montewka,et al.  Probability modelling of vessel collisions , 2010, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[27]  Floris Goerlandt,et al.  Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling , 2011, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[28]  Manolis Samuelides,et al.  Elements of risk analysis for collision and grounding of a RoRo passenger ferry , 2002 .

[29]  B. Tan,et al.  MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF VESSEL CASUALTIES RESULTING FROM TANKER TRAFFIC THROUGH NARROW WATERWAYS , 1999 .

[30]  Tayfur Altiok,et al.  Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[31]  T Macduff,et al.  THE PROBABILITY OF VESSEL COLLISIONS , 1974 .