Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Hydroclimatology of Western Canada—Review and Prospects

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climate system feature that influences the surface climate and hydrology of western North America. In this paper, we review the literature describing the PDO and demonstrate its effects on temperature, precipitation, snowfall, glacier mass balance, and streamflow with a focus on western Canada, and particularly British Columbia. We review how the PDO index was developed and discuss other North Pacific climate patterns that resemble the PDO. The impacts of PDO on glacier mass balance and streamflow from retrospective studies are also reviewed and illustrated with specific examples from BC. We assess the current state of knowledge regarding the PDO and provide a critical assessment of its use in hydroclimatology. This information should provide insight on the sensitivity of projects to climatic variability.

[1]  Nicholas A. Bond,et al.  North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions , 2008 .

[2]  Lisa J. Graumlich,et al.  Decadal‐scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA , 2004 .

[3]  Michael A. Litzow Climate regime shifts and community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska: how do recent shifts compare with 1976/1977? , 2006 .

[4]  Edward G. Josberger,et al.  Climate Variations and Changes in Mass of Three Glaciers in Western North America , 1998 .

[5]  Paul H. Whitfield,et al.  Spatiotemporal mapping of ENSO and PDO surface meteorological signals in British Columbia, Yukon, and southeast Alaska , 2010 .

[6]  Hengchun Ye,et al.  Observational evidence of the influence of Pacific SSTs on winter precipitation and spring stream discharge in Idaho , 2002 .

[7]  Kerstin Stahl,et al.  The role of synoptic‐scale circulation in the linkage between large‐scale ocean–atmosphere indices and winter surface climate in British Columbia, Canada , 2006 .

[8]  Michael D. Dettinger,et al.  Global Characteristics of Stream Flow Seasonality and Variability , 2000 .

[9]  Michael D. Dettinger,et al.  El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Streamflow Variability Associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation , 2000 .

[10]  Barrie R. Bonsal,et al.  Impacts of low frequency variability modes on Canadian winter temperature , 2001 .

[11]  R. Moore,et al.  Camp Creek Revisited: Streamflow Changes Following Salvage Harvesting in a Medium-Sized, Snowmelt-Dominated Catchment , 2005 .

[12]  Z. Gedalof,et al.  Interdecadal climate variability and regime‐scale shifts in Pacific North America , 2001 .

[13]  Philip W. Mote,et al.  Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes , 2003 .

[14]  S. Nigam,et al.  The North Pacific Oscillation–West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern: Mature-Phase Structure and Winter Impacts , 2008 .

[15]  J. Wallace,et al.  A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production , 1997 .

[16]  Rosanne D'Arrigo,et al.  On the Asian expression of the PDO , 2006 .

[17]  M. Dettinger,et al.  Changes in the Onset of Spring in the Western United States , 2001 .

[18]  James D. Scott,et al.  Forecasting Pacific SSTs: Linear Inverse Model Predictions of the PDO , 2008 .

[19]  Brent Yarnal,et al.  Synoptic-Scale Atmospheric Circulation over British Columbia in Relation to the Mass Balance of Sentinel Glacier , 1984 .

[20]  R. G. Lawford,et al.  The relationship between Canadian Prairie dry and wet months and circulation anomalies in the mid‐troposphere , 1990 .

[21]  Thomas B. McKee,et al.  Annual snowpack patterns across the Rockies: Long-term trends and associated 500-mb synoptic patterns , 1993 .

[22]  G. McCabe,et al.  DECADAL VARIATIONS IN THE STRENGTH OF ENSO TELECONNECTIONS WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES , 1999 .

[23]  T. Barnett,et al.  Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections , 1998 .

[24]  Howard Conway,et al.  Climate and Glacier Variability in Western North America. , 2004 .

[25]  J. Wallace,et al.  ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900–93 , 1997 .

[26]  Emanuele Di Lorenzo,et al.  North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Synchronizes Climate Fluctuations in the Eastern and Western Boundary Systems , 2009 .

[27]  P. Whitfield,et al.  Regime‐dependent streamflow sensitivities to Pacific climate modes cross the Georgia–Puget transboundary ecoregion , 2007 .

[28]  Steven R. Hare,et al.  Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989 , 2000 .

[29]  Claude R. Duguay,et al.  Recent trends in Canadian lake ice cover , 2006 .

[30]  Michael Manga,et al.  VARIATION IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SNOWMELT RUNOFF IN OREGON AND ENSO AND PDO 1 , 2004 .

[31]  Donald B. Percival,et al.  Regime shifts and red noise in the North Pacific , 2006 .

[32]  E. Pavia,et al.  PDO–ENSO Effects in the Climate of Mexico , 2006 .

[33]  Steven R. Hare,et al.  Decadal-scale regime shifts in the large marine ecosystems of the North-east Pacific: a case for historical science , 1994 .

[34]  John M. Wallace,et al.  Annular Modes and Climate Prediction , 2002 .

[35]  Richard J. Beamish,et al.  Climate and exceptional fish production off the West Coast of North America , 1993 .

[36]  Muyin Wang,et al.  Future climate of the north Pacific Ocean , 2007 .

[37]  N. Bond,et al.  Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific , 2003 .

[38]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals , 1999 .

[39]  李幼升,et al.  Ph , 1989 .

[40]  Yuan Zhang An observational study of atmosphere-ocean interactions in the northern oceans on interannual and interdecadal time-scale , 1996 .

[41]  Peter Molnar,et al.  Recent trends in precipitation and streamflow in the Rio Puerco Basin , 2001 .

[42]  Alain Pietroniro,et al.  Hydrological trends and variability in the Liard River basin / Tendances hydrologiques et variabilité dans le basin de la rivière Liard , 2004 .

[43]  David L. Peterson,et al.  Detecting long-term hydrological patterns at Crater Lake, Oregon , 1999 .

[44]  Sean W. Fleming,et al.  Approximate record length constraints for experimental identification of dynamical fractals , 2008 .

[45]  R. D. Moore,et al.  Spring snowpack anomaly patterns and winter climatic variability , 1996 .

[46]  R. Francis,et al.  Climate change and salmon production in the Northeast Pacific Ocean , 1994 .

[47]  John A. Dracup,et al.  ENSO and PDO Effects on Hydroclimatic Variations of the Upper Colorado River Basin , 2003 .

[48]  Sergei N. Rodionov,et al.  Use of prewhitening in climate regime shift detection , 2006 .

[49]  T. Brabets,et al.  Trends in streamflow in the Yukon River Basin from 1944 to 2005 and the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. , 2009 .

[50]  Steven R. Hare,et al.  Inverse Production Regimes: Alaska and West Coast Pacific Salmon , 1999 .

[51]  P. Kiffney,et al.  CLIMATIC AND HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY IN A COASTAL WATERSHED OF SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 1 , 2002 .

[52]  S. Franks,et al.  Multi‐decadal variability of flood risk , 2003 .

[53]  R. Moore,et al.  Mass balance and streamflow variability at Place Glacier, Canada, in relation to recent climate fluctuations , 2001 .

[54]  David S. Schimel,et al.  CLIMATE CHANGE ,C LIMATE MODES, AND CLIMATE IMPACTS , 2003 .

[55]  Randall T. Hanson,et al.  A methodology to asess relations between climatic variability and variations in hydrologic time series in the southwestern United States , 2004 .

[56]  Donald H. Burn,et al.  Climatic influences on streamflow timing in the headwaters of the Mackenzie River Basin , 2008 .

[57]  Michael A. Palecki,et al.  Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[58]  Alex J. Cannon,et al.  Influence of Pacific Climate Patterns on Low-Flows in British Columbia and Yukon, Canada , 2006 .

[59]  Philip Marsh,et al.  The synoptic climate controls on hydrology in the upper reaches of the Peace River Basin. Part II: Snow ablation , 2006 .

[60]  Larry Benson,et al.  Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the climate of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada , 2003, Quaternary Research.

[61]  Claude R. Duguay,et al.  Impacts of large-scale teleconnections on freshwater-ice break/freeze-up dates over Canada , 2006 .

[62]  J. Papineau,et al.  Wintertime temperature anomalies in Alaska correlated with ENSO and PDO , 2001 .

[63]  Franco Biondi,et al.  North Pacific Decadal Climate Variability since 1661 , 2001 .

[64]  D. E. Harrison,et al.  The Pacific decadal oscillation, air‐sea interaction and central north Pacific winter atmospheric regimes , 2000 .

[65]  Eric F. Wood,et al.  Decreasing river discharge in northern Canada , 2005 .

[66]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Hydrologic effects of logging in western Washington, United States , 2000 .

[67]  A. Miller,et al.  Interdecadal climate regime dynamics in the North Pacific Ocean: theories, observations and ecosystem impacts , 2000 .

[68]  Ross D. Brown,et al.  Interannual variability in reconstructed Canadian snow cover, 1915-1992 , 1996 .

[69]  Neil J. Holbrook,et al.  Decadal climate variability in Australia during the twentieth century , 1999 .

[70]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific , 1994 .

[71]  Heather Viles,et al.  Interannual, decadal and multidecadal scale climatic variability and geomorphology , 2003 .

[72]  James C. McWilliams,et al.  North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change , 2008 .

[73]  Donald McKenzie,et al.  DROUGHT AND PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION LINKED TO FIRE OCCURRENCE IN THE INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST , 2004 .

[74]  Martyn P. Clark,et al.  Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Snowpack Trends in the Western United States , 2005 .

[75]  E. Lorenz Deterministic nonperiodic flow , 1963 .

[76]  Matthew Newman,et al.  ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2003 .

[77]  César A. Salinas-Zavala,et al.  Reconstruction of long-term winter streamflow in the Gulf of California continental watershed , 2003 .

[78]  M. Cane,et al.  Reduced Space Optimal Interpolation of Historical Marine Sea Level Pressure: 1854–1992* , 2000 .

[79]  Shoshiro Minobe,et al.  A 50–70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America , 1997 .

[80]  M. Loik,et al.  A multi-scale perspective of water pulses in dryland ecosystems: climatology and ecohydrology of the western USA , 2004, Oecologia.

[81]  Glenn A. Hodgkins,et al.  Streamflow changes in Alaska between the cool phase (1947–1976) and the warm phase (1977–2006) of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The influence of glaciers , 2009 .

[82]  Gregg M. Garfin,et al.  A hydroclimatic index for examining patterns of drought in the Colorado River Basin , 2010 .

[83]  Edward G. Josberger,et al.  Glacier mass-balance fluctuations in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, USA , 2007, Annals of Glaciology.

[84]  Yasuhiro Koyama,et al.  Observation of short‐term variation of Jupiter's synchrotron radiation , 1999 .

[85]  Jennifer Miletta Adams,et al.  Salinity signature of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 1999 .

[86]  Sarah Praskievicz,et al.  Winter precipitation intensity and ENSO/PDO variability in the Willamette Valley of Oregon , 2009 .

[87]  Mathew Barlow,et al.  ENSO, Pacific Decadal Variability, and U.S. Summertime Precipitation, Drought, and Stream Flow , 2001 .

[88]  Thian Yew Gan,et al.  Low‐frequency variability in Southwestern Canadian stream flow: links with large‐scale climate anomalies , 2006 .

[89]  R. G. Lawford,et al.  Teleconnections between El Niño and La Niña events and summer extended dry spells on the Canadian Prairies , 1999 .

[90]  M. Todd Walter,et al.  Linking the pacific decadal oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in Southeast Alaska , 2002 .

[91]  Mark A. Cane,et al.  El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts , 2001 .

[92]  Sang-Wook Yeh,et al.  The North Pacific Climate Transitions of the Winters of 1976/77 and 1988/89 , 2011 .

[93]  C. Spence,et al.  Streamflow Variability (1965 to 1998) in Five Northwest Territories and Nunavut Rivers , 2002 .

[94]  Michael D. Dettinger,et al.  Primary Modes and Predictability of Year-to-Year Snowpack Variations in the Western United States from Teleconnections with Pacific Ocean Climate , 2002 .

[95]  Upmanu Lall,et al.  Magnitude and timing of annual maximum floods: Trends and large‐scale climatic associations for the Blacksmith Fork River, Utah , 2000 .

[96]  S. Rood,et al.  Twentieth-century decline in streamflows from the hydrographic apex of North America , 2005 .

[97]  Ze'ev Gedalof,et al.  A multi‐century perspective of variability in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: new insights from tree rings and coral , 2002 .

[98]  Deirdre M. Kann,et al.  Modulation of ENSO-Based Long-Lead Outlooks of Southwestern U.S. Winter Precipitation by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2002 .

[99]  Upmanu Lall,et al.  Floods in a changing climate: Does the past represent the future? , 2001, Water Resources Research.

[100]  Shoshiro Minobe,et al.  Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific: Role in climatic regime shifts , 1999 .

[101]  B. Menounos,et al.  Recent volume loss of British Columbian glaciers, Canada , 2007 .

[102]  William W. Hsieh,et al.  Neural network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures , 2006, Neural Networks.

[103]  Cecilia M. Bitz,et al.  Interannual to decadal variability in climate and the glacier mass balance in Washington, Western Canada, and Alaska , 1999 .

[104]  S. Grasby,et al.  Impact of decadal and century-scale oscillations on hydroclimate trend analyses , 2009 .

[105]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  The Definition of El Niño. , 1997 .

[106]  N. Mantua,et al.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2002 .

[107]  Sean W. Fleming,et al.  Glacier‐mediated streamflow teleconnections to the Arctic Oscillation , 2006 .

[108]  Brian Hartmann,et al.  The Significance of the 1976 Pacific Climate Shift in the Climatology of Alaska , 2005 .

[109]  Roger Wheate,et al.  Glacier change in western North America: influences on hydrology, geomorphic hazards and water quality , 2009 .

[110]  A. Shabbar,et al.  Associations between low frequency variability modes and winter temperature extremes in Canada , 2004 .

[111]  Bruce D. Cornuelle,et al.  The Forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2005 .

[112]  A. Mysterud,et al.  Review article. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond , 2003, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[113]  Russ E. Davis,et al.  Red noise and regime shifts , 2003 .

[114]  William W. Hsieh,et al.  Nonlinear principal component analysis of noisy data , 2006, The 2006 IEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Network Proceedings.

[115]  William W. Hsieh Nonlinear principal component analysis of noisy data , 2007, Neural Networks.

[116]  Steven R. Hare,et al.  Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific , 1998 .