Worldwide Oil Prize, Desalination and Population Growth Correlation Study

In this paper, the investment in new desalination capacity, expressed as daily production capacity, was studied as a function of oil production and population increase for a large group of countries for the last 25 years. These countries were selected for their large desalination production and Sweden presented as reference. Oil produc­ tion correlated well with investments in new desalination capacity. On a yearly basis, the correlation was about 78 %, but taking into account the time needed from investment decision to inauguration of new desalination plants, the correlation increased. The world oil production two years prior inauguration correlated to 88 % with new world desalination capacity during the entire study time. The total population for the studied countries was compared to the world population. In 1950, about 69 % of world population lived in the chosen countries, decreasing to 63 % in the year 2008 and according to popu­ lation prognosis continues to decrease to 56 % in the year 2050 with occupied area of about 52 %. The total desalination capacities of these countries are slightly increased from 88 to 92 % in 1996 and 2008 respectively, and decreased to 90 % at 2050. Increased desalination capacity means increased energy demand. To a large extent, the energy costs are site specific as are the costs of labour and capital, but the reported water price was about 2.5 US $/m 3 desalinated water until the 1980s, decreasing to roughly US $1.5/m 3 in the early 1990s and to about $0.50/m 3 in the late