Trend analysis of nutrient loadings in a large prairie catchment

ABSTRACT Nutrient loadings in many river catchments continue to increase due to rapid expansion of agriculture, urban and industrial development, and population growth. Nutrient enrichment of water bodies has intensified eutrophication which degrades water quality and ecosystem health. In this study, we carried out a trend analysis of total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads in the South Saskatchewan River (SSR) catchment using a novel approach to analyse nutrient time series. Seasonal analysis of trends at each of the water quality stations was performed to determine the relationships between annual flow regimes and nutrient loads in the catchment, in particular, the influence of the high spring runoff on nutrient export. Decadal analysis was also performed to determine the long-term relationships of nutrients with anthropogenic changes in the catchment. Although it was found that seasonal and historical variability of nutrient load trends is mainly determined by streamflow regime changes, there is evidence that increases in nitrogen concentration can also be attributed to anthropogenic changes.

[1]  D. Helsel,et al.  Statistical methods in water resources , 2020, Techniques and Methods.

[2]  K. Lindenschmidt,et al.  Assessing the transport of total phosphorus from a prairie river basin using SPARROW , 2015 .

[3]  Kwok Pan Chun,et al.  Temporal trends in δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: insights from time series modelling and trend analysis , 2015 .

[4]  P. Leavitt,et al.  Nutrient sequestration in the Lake Winnipeg watershed , 2015 .

[5]  K. Lindenschmidt,et al.  Evidence for internal phosphorus loading in a large prairie reservoir (Lake Diefenbaker, Saskatchewan) , 2015 .

[6]  S. K. Schmidt,et al.  Atmospheric deposition as a source of carbon and nutrients to an alpine catchment of the Colorado Rocky Mountains , 2012 .

[7]  M. Ryan,et al.  Decadal and seasonal water quality trends downstream of urban and rural areas in southern Alberta rivers , 2012 .

[8]  David W. Schindler,et al.  The rapid eutrophication of Lake Winnipeg: Greening under global change , 2012 .

[9]  D. Barber,et al.  Hydrological forcing of a recent trophic surge in Lake Winnipeg , 2012 .

[10]  Gregory E Schwarz,et al.  A Multi-Agency Nutrient Dataset Used to Estimate Loads, Improve Monitoring Design, and Calibrate Regional Nutrient SPARROW Models1 , 2011, Journal of the American Water Resources Association.

[11]  S. Watson,et al.  Bloom development and phytoplankton succession in Lake Winnipeg: a comparison of historical records with recent data , 2011 .

[12]  Y. YangJ.,et al.  Estimating the impact of manure nitrogen losses on total nitrogen application on agricultural land in Canada , 2011 .

[13]  E. Bremer,et al.  Soil test phosphorus and nitrate adjacent to artificial and natural cattle watering sites in southern Alberta , 2010 .

[14]  K. Chun.  Statistical Downscaling of Climate Model Outputs for Hydrological Extremes , 2010 .

[15]  George E. P. Box,et al.  Time Series Analysis: Box/Time Series Analysis , 2008 .

[16]  F. Hauer,et al.  Pattern and Process in Northern Rocky Mountain Headwaters: Ecological Linkages in the Headwaters of the Crown of the Continent 1 , 2007 .

[17]  D. Phaneuf,et al.  Estimating the effects of urban residential development on water quality using microdata. , 2006, Journal of environmental management.

[18]  Richard A. Smith,et al.  Trends in the nutrient enrichment of U.S. rivers during the late 20th century and their relation to changes in probable stream trophic conditions , 2006 .

[19]  M. Schnepf,et al.  Environmental benefits of conservation on cropland: the status of our knowledge. , 2006 .

[20]  Alberta.,et al.  Guidelines for quality assurance and quality control in surface water quality programs in Alberta , 2006 .

[21]  Richard A. Smith,et al.  Section 3. The SPARROW Surface Water-Quality Model: Theory, Application and User Documentation , 2006 .

[22]  Timothy A. Cohn,et al.  Estimating contaminant loads in rivers: An application of adjusted maximum likelihood to type 1 censored data , 2005 .

[23]  James D. Hagy,et al.  Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay, 1950–2001: Long-term change in relation to nutrient loading and river flow , 2004 .

[24]  B. Mayer,et al.  Isotopic Assessment of Sources of Surface Water Nitrate within the Oldman River Basin, Southern Alberta, Canada , 2004 .

[25]  D. Burns,et al.  Atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and southern Wyoming—a review and new analysis of past study results , 2003 .

[26]  Sheng Yue,et al.  The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series , 2002 .

[27]  A. Sosiak.  Long-term response of periphyton and macrophytes to reduced municipal nutrient loading to the Bow River (Alberta, Canada) , 2002 .

[28]  D. Papamichail,et al.  Statistical and trend analysis of water quality and quantity data for the Strymon River in Greece , 2001 .

[29]  J. Meyer,et al.  Streams in the Urban Landscape , 2001 .

[30]  W. Wiseman,et al.  Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. , 2001, Journal of environmental quality.

[31]  Xuebin Zhang,et al.  Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century , 2000, Data, Models and Analysis.

[32]  V. Smith,et al.  Eutrophication: impacts of excess nutrient inputs on freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems. , 1999, Environmental pollution.

[33]  D. Acton,et al.  The Ecoregions of Saskatchewan , 1998 .

[34]  Gregory E. Schwarz,et al.  Regional interpretation of water‐quality monitoring data , 1997 .

[35]  Hans von Storch,et al.  Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research , 1995 .

[36]  B. R. Taylor,et al.  REGIONAL AND TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF TOTAL SOLUTES IN THE SASKATCHEWAN RWER BASIN1 , 1993 .

[37]  Robert M. Summers,et al.  The validity of a simple statistical model for estimating fluvial constituent loads: An Empirical study involving nutrient loads entering Chesapeake Bay , 1992 .

[38]  Y. Zaitsev,et al.  Recent changes in the trophic structure of the Black Sea , 1992 .

[39]  Charles G. Crawford,et al.  Estimation of suspended-sediment rating curves and mean suspended-sediment loads , 1991 .

[40]  P. A. Blight.  The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction , 1991 .

[41]  Robert M. Hirsch,et al.  Estimating constituent loads , 1989 .

[42]  Robert M. Hirsch.  Statistical Methods and Sampling Design for Estimating Step Trends in Surface-Water Quality , 1988 .

[43]  Richard M. Vogel,et al.  The Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient Test for the Normal, Lognormal, and Gumbel Distributional Hypotheses , 1986 .

[44]  R. Ferguson.  River Loads Underestimated by Rating Curves , 1986 .

[45]  A. Gurnell,et al.  An evaluation of the use of suspended sediment rating curves for the prediction of suspended sediment concentration in a proglacial stream , 1985 .

[46]  L E Cronin,et al.  Chesapeake Bay Anoxia: Origin, Development, and Significance , 1984, Science.

[47]  Gerald van Belle,et al.  Nonparametric Tests for Trend in Water Quality , 1984 .

[48]  R. Hirsch,et al.  Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data , 1982 .

[49]  R. Forthofer,et al.  Rank Correlation Methods , 1981 .

[50]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Detection of trends in water quality data from records with dependent observations , 1976 .

[51]  P. Young,et al.  Time series analysis, forecasting and control , 1972, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control.

[52]  H. B. Mann.  Nonparametric Tests Against Trend , 1945 .