Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer Frequency and Risk Factors in Australian Heart and Lung Transplant Recipients.

Importance There is limited research examining the incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in heart and lung transplant recipients in Australia. Objective To determine the frequency of and risk factors for NMSC in a cohort of Australian heart and lung transplant recipients. Design, Setting, and Participants A retrospective cohort study was conducted at an Australian tertiary center where heart and lung transplants are performed between March 21 and December 14, 2016. A consecutive sample of 94 patients who underwent heart and/or lung transplant presenting for outpatient dermatologic review were evaluated. Data analysis was conducted between April 18 and October 30, 2017. Exposures Risk factors examined for association with posttransplantation NMSC included age at the time of transplantation, sex, skin phenotype, UV radiation exposure, history of allograft rejection, history of smoking, history of skin cancer prior to transplant, and transplant type. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome measure was the occurrence of posttransplantation NMSC. The probabilities of developing NMSC in general, and squamous cell carcinoma and basal cell carcinoma specifically, were separately summarized based on Kaplan-Meier analysis. Association of risk factors with development of NMSC was examined using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results Of the 94 study participants, 58 (62%) were men; median age at transplantation was 51.9 years (range, 15.1-69.7 years). There were 801 posttransplantation skin cancers in 57 (61%) of the patients who underwent heart and/or lung transplant. The probabilities for NMSC were 41% (95% CI, 31%-53%) at 5 years and 67% (95% CI, 55%-78%) at 10 years; for basal cell carcinoma, 27% (95% CI, 18%-38%) at 5 years and 53% (95% CI, 40%-67%) at 10 years; and for squamous cell carcinoma, 33% (95% CI, 24%-45%) at 5 years and 62% (95% CI, 50%-74%) at 10 years. On multivariable analysis, older age at transplantation was associated with the development of NMSC (hazard ratio [HR], 1.07/1 year; 95% CI, 1.04-1.10; P < .001) and history of pretransplant skin cancer was associated with development of basal cell carcinoma (HR, 4.56; 95% CI, 1.67-12.42; P = .003). A Fitzpatrick skin type III to VI was associated with a decreased risk of NMSC (HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.24-0.74; P = .003). Sex, transplanted organ, UV radiation exposure, and history of allograft rejection were not associated with an increased risk of skin cancer. Conclusions and Relevance In this study of Australian heart and lung transplant recipients, there was a probable high frequency of NMSC. Routine dermatologic surveillance at frequent intervals is advised for similar populations.