A modelling implementation of climate change on biodegradation of Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) by Aspergillus niger in soil

Abstract Aim:  To model the areas becoming and remaining highly suitable for Aspergillus niger growth over the next ninety years by future climate alteration, in relation to the species’ potential enhancement of Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) biodegradation in soil. Location:  Global scale Methods:  Projections of A. niger growth suitability for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 were made using the A2 emissions scenario together with two Global Climate Models (GCMs): the CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) model and the MIROC-H (MR) model through CLIMEX software. Subsequently the outputs of the two GCMs were overlaid to extract common areas in each period of time, providing higher certainty concerning areas which will become highly suitable to A. niger in the future. Afterwards, GIS software was employed to extract sustainable regions for this species growth from present time up to 2100. Results:  Central and eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil, eastern United States, southern France, northern Spain, central and southern Italy, southern Hungary, eastern Albania, south western Russia, central and eastern China, eastern Australia, south east of South Africa, central Zambia, Rwanda, Burundi, central Kenya, central Ethiopia and north eastern Oman will be highly suitable for A. niger growth from present time up to 2100. Main conclusions:  Accurately evaluating the impact of landfilling on land use and predicting future climate are vital components for effective long-term planning of waste management. From a social and economic perspective, utilization of our mapped projections to detect suitable regions for establishing landfills in areas highly sustainable for microorganisms like A. niger growth will allow a significant cost reduction and improve the performance of biodegradation of LDPE over a long period of time, through making use of natural climatic and environmental factors.

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